Record Ethanol Output Lifts Production Pace Above Seasonal Norms

Record output, larger stocks, and softer exports point to a well-supplied domestic ethanol market as harvest progresses.

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol plants pushed to a new weekly production record as October closed, offering a strong signal of steady grind and favorable margins. According to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association, output for the week ending Oct. 31 rose 2.9% to 1.12 million barrels per day, equal to 47.17 million gallons daily. Production ran 1.6% above last year and 5.3% above the three-year average, with the four-week average climbing to 1.10 million b/d, an annualized rate of 16.91 billion gallons.

Ethanol stocks also built, rising 1.3% to 22.7 million barrels, now running 2.9% ahead of last year and 4.2% above typical levels. Inventories increased in every region except the Rockies and West Coast, reflecting strong Midwest output and ample storage capacity. Gasoline supplied—an indicator of implied fuel demand—slipped 0.6% to 8.87 million b/d, a level slightly stronger than a year ago but still 2.6% below the three-year seasonal benchmark.

Refiner and blender net inputs of ethanol fell 0.8% to 904,000 b/d, a figure now 1.5% below last year but marginally above the longer-term average. Export volumes softened significantly, sliding 38.9% to an estimated 107,000 b/d, while EIA continued to report no imports for more than a year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Record output, larger stocks, and softer exports point to a well-supplied domestic ethanol market as harvest progresses.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Related Stories
Global pork production is expected to rise in the first half of 2026, despite trade volatility stemming from shifting import policies and swine disease pressures.
Clearer 45Z rules favor U.S. oilseeds, but final RFS volumes remain critical to locking in demand.
Even small declines in the calf crop translate into sustained supply pressure, supporting cattle prices over multiple years.
Economists are also closely watching how policy decisions in Washington could influence markets moving forward. Analysts say deferred futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat suggest markets are operating near break-even levels, not at prices that would encourage expanded production.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

For rural borrowers, freeing up community-bank balance sheets could mean steadier home loans, operating lines, and ag real-estate financing as winter planning ramps up.
The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) is urging Congress and the Trump Administration to act quickly on behalf of American agriculture.
Better yield measurement means fairer grids, more precise breeding targets, and more dollars for truly efficient cattle.
Escalating U.S.–China tensions threaten soybean demand as farm finances are stretched further.
Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.
ock NH3 early, track China’s Oct. 15 call and any U.S. Russia-UAN action, stay nimble on urea, and budget cautiously for high-priced phosphate.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.