NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer choices for fall and spring hinge on China’s export stance, U.S.–Russia sanctions risk, and tight global ammonia supplies—factors that could swing budgets within weeks.
Josh Linville of StoneX says China plans to halt urea exports after Oct. 15; holding the cutoff would firm prices, while an extension would push more tons into the market and soften values. India just issued what it calls 2025’s final urea tender (~2 MMT; offers next week; ship by Dec. 10), likely drawing aggressive offers—especially if China stays open.
Urea-to-grain economics have improved but remain high. The biggest flashpoint is UAN: about half of U.S. UAN imports come from Russia, so any U.S. block would tighten an already thin system (low starting inventories, plant maintenance, Europe ~75% of normal, Trinidad gas issues), keeping UAN’s premium over other N. NH3 demand looks strong as the cheapest N per pound amid global tightness. Phosphates stay elevated with tariff headwinds and potential China curbs; potash is flat with uncertain fall pull.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lock NH3 early, track China’s Oct. 15 call and any U.S. Russia-UAN action, stay nimble on urea, and budget cautiously for high-priced phosphate.
China’s stricter inspection rules prompt Cargill to pause soybean exports from Brazil, briefly lifting U.S. soybean prices as traders anticipate potential shifts in global trade, as export demand remains supportive across all major U.S. commodities.
March 13, 2026 12:57 PM
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Suderman joins Tony St. James in the RFD Studios to discuss how geopolitical tensions are triggering global transport disruptions, new inflation pressures, and other challenges for agriculture to navigate.
March 13, 2026 11:08 AM
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Severe drought in South Texas is forcing ranchers to consider cattle sell-offs as feed and water supplies dwindle, threatening herd health and livestock operations.
March 12, 2026 05:09 PM
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Farm Bureau economist Dr. Faith Parum explains how geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East could further tighten fertilizer movement, increase fuel costs, and complicate planting decisions for U.S. farmers this spring.
March 12, 2026 03:57 PM
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Farm CPA Paul Nieffer explains the Farmer Bridge Assistance payment limits, provides clarity on new legislation, and offers advice for producers considering business structure adjustments.
March 12, 2026 03:31 PM
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Dr. David Anderson with Texas A&M University AgriLife Extension discusses how geopolitical tensions and the Middle East, along with export disruptions in the Chinese market, will shape cattle markets in the months ahead.
March 12, 2026 12:54 PM
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