NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — Retail beef prices have moved decisively higher over the past two years, and the pattern now points to a structural reset rather than temporary inflation noise. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data show the all-fresh beef retail value rising from 784.9 cents per pound in December 2023 to 939.6 cents per pound by November 2025 — a gain of nearly 20 percent in less than two years. The pace of increase accelerated in 2025, signaling tightening fundamentals instead of lingering post-pandemic effects.
Seasonal behavior changed noticeably. In 2024, retail prices followed a familiar pattern — firming into summer, peaking near 820 cents per pound, then easing in the fall. In 2025, that ceiling disappeared. Prices set a higher plateau each quarter, strengthened sharply through summer, and continued climbing into the fall with no meaningful correction.
Year-over-year comparisons highlight the shift. By late summer and fall 2025, retail beef prices were running $1.00 to $1.30 per pound above the same months in 2024. Despite that increase, demand has not collapsed. Prices advanced steadily, suggesting consumers are absorbing higher costs by adjusting cuts or frequency rather than abandoning beef.
The consistency supports a tight-supply narrative tied to herd contraction, lower fed cattle availability, and limited retail discounting flexibility. If supplies remain constrained into 2026, meaningful retail price relief appears unlikely.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Retail pricing confirms tight cattle supplies and supports continued leverage for producers, reinforcing the need for disciplined risk management.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
A regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture, prepared by RFD-TV Markets Specialist Tony St. James, for the week of Monday, November 24, 2025.
November 24, 2025 02:56 PM
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One trader said the products entering the U.S. are primarily grind and trim, noting that the volume and type of beef, on its own, should not cause a major disruption. However, he says fund traders are reacting heavily to headlines rather than market realities.
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The agriculture workforce remains strong and diverse, offering meaningful pathways for students pursuing careers that support the food and farm economy.
November 21, 2025 02:13 PM
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November 21, 2025 12:01 PM
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Early Cattle-on-Feed estimates point to slightly tighter cattle supplies, reinforcing the need to monitor prices and timing for winter marketing.
November 21, 2025 10:45 AM
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Removing the 40% duty sharply lowers U.S. beef import costs on beef, coffee, fertilizer and fruit, and restores Brazil’s competitiveness during a period of tight domestic supply.
November 21, 2025 10:30 AM
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