Seasonal Beef Production Recovery Could Temper Retail Prices

Seasonal beef production gains may moderate retail price pressure, while tight cattle supplies continue supporting producer values.

LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Beef supplies are beginning their seasonal recovery, offering possible relief from recent retail price highs without signaling a larger cattle supply. Texas A&M AgriLife Extension livestock economist Dr. David Anderson says production remains below last year.

Weekly beef production averaged 6.1 percent below 2025 levels from January through April. In May, the year-over-year decline narrowed to 3.8 percent as slaughter moved above early-spring lows.

Steer slaughter has edged higher, while heifer slaughter has increased slightly. Beef cow culling remains below last year but has increased from early-year levels. Heavy-fed cattle weights continue supporting total beef output.

Seasonally tight spring supplies met grilling-season demand, helping push retail beef prices higher. More cattle on feed and continued heavy carcass weights could increase summer production from spring lows and slow further price gains.

The improvement does not mean beef production will exceed last year or that consumers will see lower year-over-year prices. Limited cattle inventories remain the broader issue, keeping cattle values supported while beef remains expensive.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Seasonal beef production gains may moderate retail price pressure, while tight cattle supplies continue supporting producer values.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.
U.S. grain export inspections stayed solid for the week ending May 7, with corn still leading the export pace and soybeans posting a strong weekly rebound.
U.S. beef imports are running at a record pace while exports are falling, reflecting tight domestic cattle supplies and high U.S. beef prices.
ASFMRA’s Chad Hertz joins us to discuss farmland trends, economic pressures facing producers, and how outside influences are shaping today’s land market.
Cattle analysts say the U.S. beef cattle herd rebuild still faces major hurdles despite some minor positive signals noted in certain regions.
USDA’s first 2026/27 outlook shows tighter supplies across several markets, led by wheat, corn, cotton, rice, beef, and sugar.