WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 remained unchanged at 350 million bushels in USDA’s March Oil Crops Outlook, even as stronger crush demand lifted both supply and use forecasts.
USDA raised soybean imports by 5 million bushels and increased crush by the same amount to a record 2.58 billion bushels. The export forecast held at 1.58 billion bushels, while the season-average farm price stayed unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. Soybean meal demand improved on strong domestic use and competitive pricing, pushing the meal price forecast up to $300 per short ton.
For producers, the crush increase matters because it reflects solid demand for soybean products even as soybean oil use in biofuels has weakened. USDA lowered soybean oil used for biomass-based diesel to 14.0 billion pounds, but stronger food, feed, and industrial use helped offset much of that decline. Soybean oil prices were still raised to 55 cents per pound.
Globally, sunflowerseed production and crush increased, especially in Argentina, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, while Argentina’s soybean crop was trimmed slightly on lower yield.
“It does not extinguish right away here — in any sort of sense — the real profitability concerns and people’s ability to pay bills and get to the other side of this in the very short term. This is where the skepticism builds.”
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