NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Soybean prices tend to follow repeatable seasonal patterns that can help producers evaluate marketing risk and opportunity throughout the year. While prices are influenced by many factors, seasonality provides a baseline expectation of how prices often behave as supplies build and draw down, informing timing decisions beyond day-to-day volatility.
Research summarized by Dr. Grant Gardner, Assistant Extension Professor at the University of Kentucky, examines national soybean cash prices from 2010 to 2025 using a seasonal price index. Results show prices are typically weakest near harvest, strengthen through winter and spring, and often peak in late spring or early summer before easing ahead of new-crop supplies.
From an operational standpoint, this pattern suggests post-harvest marketing opportunities frequently outperform harvest-time sales. However, not every year follows the average path, and producers must weigh seasonal tendencies against current market signals.
Only three of the past 15 years—2015, 2019, and 2024—saw soybean prices stronger at harvest than later in the marketing year, driven by factors like tight stocks, weather risk, or trade uncertainty.
Seasonality is not a rule but a decision-making tool that works best when combined with fundamentals, cash flow needs, and risk tolerance.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Seasonal price patterns can inform soybean marketing timing, particularly when harvest prices appear unusually strong or weak.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Corn and wheat exports continue to outperform last year, while soybeans show steady but subdued movement compared to 2024.
December 09, 2025 12:14 PM
·
Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.
December 09, 2025 11:55 AM
·
Grain farms still have strong balance sheets, but another stretch of low profits will force hard cost cuts, especially on high-rent, highly leveraged operations.
December 09, 2025 11:41 AM
·
The new rule removes prevented-plant buy-up coverage, prompting strong objections from farm groups concerned about added risk exposure.
December 09, 2025 05:00 AM
·
Tight Credit, Strong Yields Define Early December Agriculture
December 08, 2025 07:30 PM
·
Lawmakers and experts react to the Administration’s long-awaited announcement of “bridge” aid to stabilize farms and offset 2025 losses until expanded safety-net programs begin in 2026.
December 08, 2025 05:40 PM
·
Joe Peiffer with Ag & Business Legal Strategies advises farmers on end-of-year financial planning, including preparing records, avoiding common credit mistakes, and evaluating equipment purchases for 2026.
December 08, 2025 04:43 PM
·
Lewie Pugh with the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) discusses the gap in truck driver education programs and how it impacts road safety and supply chain economics.
December 08, 2025 03:49 PM
·
Cattle imports from Mexico remain stalled amid the New World screwworm outbreak. At the same time, Tyson closures add pressure on Nebraska producers and markets ahead of the USDA’s upcoming Cattle on Feed Report.
December 08, 2025 01:55 PM
·
