NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Soymeal futures have taken some hits in recent days. One trader, Brian Hoops with Midwest Market Solutions, said the action boils down to planting in South America.
“Part of that reason is that Argentina is a huge exporter of soybean meal in the world marketplace,” Hoops said. “They’re about half planted, maybe two-thirds planted of their corn and soybean crops. The rains that they’re going to be receiving here in the next two weeks into January will be deemed as really beneficial for their crops, so they’re going to have a big crop to sell, a lot of meal, it looks like, to export, and the meal futures are anticipating that by moving lower.”
Hoops said all the action down there is not only putting pressure on meal but also on corn and soybeans. He says right now all signs point to a monster crop coming out of South America next year.
However, a new economic analysis funded by the United Soybean Board and conducted by World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services (WAEES) on the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed “half-RIN” credit system for imported biofuels would deliver the strongest economic outcome for U.S. soybean farmers by keeping domestic feedstocks more competitive while still allowing imports to supplement biomass-based diesel production.
Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, a Renewable Identification Number (RIN) is the compliance credit used by obligated parties to document biofuel blending — meaning any change to how RINs are assigned can shift feedstock demand across global markets.
Researchers found that assigning only a 50 percent RIN value to imported biofuels or those made from foreign feedstocks reduces incentives to substitute imported oils for U.S. soybean oil. The study — funded by the United Soybean Board and conducted by World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services — shows the half-RIN structure consistently lifts soybean receipts, strengthens soybean oil values, and preserves biofuel-sector demand.
By contrast, removing the half credit would lower farm income, reduce soybean oil use in biofuels, and expand reliance on imported tallow and used cooking oil.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Retaining the half-RIN credit protects soybean demand, farm income, and crushing-sector strength while preserving biofuel market flexibility.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
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