NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Transportation and geopolitical risks are the dominant factors affecting commodity markets this week. Farmers and investors are closely monitoring crude oil flows and cattle supply levels, as these factors continue to influence prices and inflation trends.
Arlen Suderman of StoneX joined us live in RFD Studios Music Row for Thursday’s Market Day Report to provide an in-depth look at current commodity and cattle market trends amid global uncertainty and supply disruptions.
In his conversation with RFD NEWS Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Suderman explained that the main driver behind recent price swings is not supply and demand for corn, wheat, or soybeans, but rather transportation — particularly the flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions in fertilizer supply. He noted that these issues are fueling inflation concerns, with grains, oilseeds, and energy sectors showing strong correlations to the Consumer Price Index.
“Whenever the Strait opens up — tomorrow, next week, or next month — that should relieve some pressure,” Suderman said, emphasizing the Strait’s pivotal role in global markets. He also cautioned that while Iran is capable of creating fear through military maneuvers, the country’s interest lies in crude oil, not indiscriminate mining of the Strait.
Turning to cattle and beef, Suderman highlighted ongoing market pressures from herd liquidation, feed and water shortages, and input inflation. Despite these challenges, he noted strong protein demand and limited supply as key factors supporting prices, with cash markets stabilizing as speculative money lightens. He explained that any reopening of the U.S.-Mexico border in Arizona could increase feeder cattle supply over time, while the JBS Greeley strike is exacerbating overcapacity, affecting producer costs and cattle movements.
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