NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer choices for fall and spring hinge on China’s export stance, U.S.–Russia sanctions risk, and tight global ammonia supplies—factors that could swing budgets within weeks.
Josh Linville of StoneX says China plans to halt urea exports after Oct. 15; holding the cutoff would firm prices, while an extension would push more tons into the market and soften values. India just issued what it calls 2025’s final urea tender (~2 MMT; offers next week; ship by Dec. 10), likely drawing aggressive offers—especially if China stays open.
Urea-to-grain economics have improved but remain high. The biggest flashpoint is UAN: about half of U.S. UAN imports come from Russia, so any U.S. block would tighten an already thin system (low starting inventories, plant maintenance, Europe ~75% of normal, Trinidad gas issues), keeping UAN’s premium over other N. NH3 demand looks strong as the cheapest N per pound amid global tightness. Phosphates stay elevated with tariff headwinds and potential China curbs; potash is flat with uncertain fall pull.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lock NH3 early, track China’s Oct. 15 call and any U.S. Russia-UAN action, stay nimble on urea, and budget cautiously for high-priced phosphate.
Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
October 31, 2025 11:44 AM
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Farm Bureau Economist Faith Parum discusses key outcomes from the U.S.-China trade agreement and the benefits of expanding trade across Southeast Asia.
October 30, 2025 03:25 PM
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Chris Bliley with Growth Energy discusses ongoing concerns about U.S. ethanol exports and the expansion of market access promised under the Phase One deal between the U.S. and China.
October 30, 2025 02:30 PM
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“It does not extinguish right away here — in any sort of sense — the real profitability concerns and people’s ability to pay bills and get to the other side of this in the very short term. This is where the skepticism builds.”
October 30, 2025 02:20 PM
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U.S. Senator Roger Marshall (R-KS) shares his perspective on the U.S.-China trade developments and their potential impact on American producers, farmers, and ranchers.
October 30, 2025 12:56 PM
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Rich Nelson, a commodity broker for Allendale Inc., joins us to break down what the U.S.-China trade agreement means for the ag economy.
October 30, 2025 12:04 PM
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The U.S.-China summit raises hopes for stronger exports and reduced barriers, but U.S. ag players should remain strategically cautious until concrete volumes and certifications materialize.
October 30, 2025 10:37 AM
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Expect incremental near-term lift for feed grains, proteins, and ethanol as tariff cuts and smoother approvals translate into real orders.
October 29, 2025 03:04 PM
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If confirmed, early Chinese buys tighten nearby Gulf/PNW capacity and could bump basis in export-oriented regions.
October 29, 2025 10:15 AM
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