NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer choices for fall and spring hinge on China’s export stance, U.S.–Russia sanctions risk, and tight global ammonia supplies—factors that could swing budgets within weeks.
Josh Linville of StoneX says China plans to halt urea exports after Oct. 15; holding the cutoff would firm prices, while an extension would push more tons into the market and soften values. India just issued what it calls 2025’s final urea tender (~2 MMT; offers next week; ship by Dec. 10), likely drawing aggressive offers—especially if China stays open.
Urea-to-grain economics have improved but remain high. The biggest flashpoint is UAN: about half of U.S. UAN imports come from Russia, so any U.S. block would tighten an already thin system (low starting inventories, plant maintenance, Europe ~75% of normal, Trinidad gas issues), keeping UAN’s premium over other N. NH3 demand looks strong as the cheapest N per pound amid global tightness. Phosphates stay elevated with tariff headwinds and potential China curbs; potash is flat with uncertain fall pull.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lock NH3 early, track China’s Oct. 15 call and any U.S. Russia-UAN action, stay nimble on urea, and budget cautiously for high-priced phosphate.
Farmer Bridge payments are being used primarily to reduce debt and protect cash flow, not drive new spending. Curt Blades with the Association of Equipment Manufacturers joined us to provide insight into the ag equipment market and the factors influencing sales.
January 08, 2026 08:00 AM
·
Rail strength is helping stabilize grain movement, but river and export slowdowns continue to limit overall logistics momentum.
January 08, 2026 06:00 AM
·
China continues to buy U.S. soybeans toward its 12 MMT commitment, as analysts cite data gaps, delivery timing questions, and muted market reaction.
January 07, 2026 11:50 AM
·
As the new year begins, both farmers and rural families are taking stock of their finances and planning ahead for 2026.
January 06, 2026 03:23 PM
·
Trade uncertainty—especially regarding soybeans—continues to weigh on future outlooks, even as farm finances and land values remain resilient.
January 06, 2026 03:09 PM
·
Strong export demand supports feed grain prices, but drought risk and seasonal patterns favor disciplined early-year marketing.
January 06, 2026 02:46 PM
·
Sen. Deb Fischer reintroduces the HAULS Act to update hours-of-service exemptions and definitions affecting livestock and agricultural haulers. She joins us on Market Day Report to share more about her proposed legislation.
January 06, 2026 01:28 PM
·
Corn export strength remains a key demand anchor, while China’s continued involvement in soybeans and sorghum bears close watching for price direction.
January 06, 2026 01:12 PM
·
Strong crush demand and rising ethanol production are pressuring feedstocks, as traders monitor storage risks and supply chain uncertainty and await the upcoming January WASDE report.
January 06, 2026 01:04 PM
·
