NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer choices for fall and spring hinge on China’s export stance, U.S.–Russia sanctions risk, and tight global ammonia supplies—factors that could swing budgets within weeks.
Josh Linville of StoneX says China plans to halt urea exports after Oct. 15; holding the cutoff would firm prices, while an extension would push more tons into the market and soften values. India just issued what it calls 2025’s final urea tender (~2 MMT; offers next week; ship by Dec. 10), likely drawing aggressive offers—especially if China stays open.
Urea-to-grain economics have improved but remain high. The biggest flashpoint is UAN: about half of U.S. UAN imports come from Russia, so any U.S. block would tighten an already thin system (low starting inventories, plant maintenance, Europe ~75% of normal, Trinidad gas issues), keeping UAN’s premium over other N. NH3 demand looks strong as the cheapest N per pound amid global tightness. Phosphates stay elevated with tariff headwinds and potential China curbs; potash is flat with uncertain fall pull.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lock NH3 early, track China’s Oct. 15 call and any U.S. Russia-UAN action, stay nimble on urea, and budget cautiously for high-priced phosphate.
Strong global demand and falling stocks suggest continued price volatility for U.S. coffee buyers despite record world production.
December 26, 2025 03:00 PM
·
U.S. dairy producers remain the primary growth engine globally, while tightening supplies in Europe and New Zealand could support export demand for American dairy products.
December 26, 2025 12:00 PM
·
Benchmark machinery costs against those of similar-sized, high-performing operations to inform equipment and investment decisions.
December 25, 2025 12:00 PM
·
Record pace corn exports are helping stabilize prices despite softer global grain production and ongoing supply competition.
December 25, 2025 06:00 AM
·
Broader export demand helps stabilize prices and supports stronger marketing opportunities over time.
December 24, 2025 03:00 PM
·
Rep. Randy Feenstra, R-IA, details how the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” Act (OBBBA) supports farmers, biofuels, and rural communities with tax breaks, crop insurance relief, and ag infrastructure.
December 23, 2025 02:01 PM
·
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney explains why the 2026 USMCA review could directly affect dairy access, produce competition, and export reliability for U.S. farmers and ranchers.
December 23, 2025 01:04 PM
·
Smaller U.S. production and steady global demand could provide better pricing opportunities in 2026.
December 23, 2025 12:12 PM
·
Reviewing risk management now can help dairy and livestock producers enter 2026 with clearer margins and fewer surprises.
December 22, 2025 03:19 PM
·
