NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV)— U.S. cattle supplies remain historically tight, keeping a firm tone under beef prices into 2026.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates the total herd at about 86.7 million head on Jan. 1, 2025—near 70-year lows—while the July 1 inventory showed only a modest uptick in beef replacement heifers, signaling a slow rebuild at best.
Imports are backfilling the gap: ERS’s mid-year outlook pegged 2025 beef imports near 5.19 billion pounds, with only a slight pullback expected in 2026 as global exportable supplies tighten.
On the fed-cattle side, packers and feeders continue to lean on beef-on-dairy crosses. Industry analysts estimate that these calves could account for roughly a mid-teens share of the fed market (about 3.2 million head in 2024), with a notable presence in Southern High Plains yards—supporting uniform carcass quality and throughput even as native calf supplies remain light.
With constrained beef-cow numbers and a gradual rebuild, price breaks are more likely to come from demand or imports than from a surge in domestic cattle.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
With record grain harvests and rising global ethanol demand, leaders across the ag and energy sectors are pushing for year-round E15 sales to mitigate the strain on grain trade.
December 22, 2025 02:45 PM
·
Small, locally focused wineries are finding resilience through direct sales and regional loyalty rather than scale alone.
December 22, 2025 02:05 PM
·
The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) and Public Lands Council (PLC) are praising the passage of a bill to delist gray wolves as an endangered species by the U.S. House last week.
December 22, 2025 01:23 PM
·
Recent USDA export sales data show China has been active in the U.S. market, but analysts tell RFD-TV News that the timing is a key clue.
December 22, 2025 12:45 PM
·
Tight feeder supplies and lower placements indicate continued support for the cattle market, with regional impacts heightened in Texas by reduced feeder imports.
December 22, 2025 10:10 AM
·
Jeff Johnston with CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange explains the growing role of Rural America in supporting the nation’s digital infrastructure.
December 19, 2025 01:43 PM
·
Cattle markets are watching the Cattle-on-Feed Report for signs of tighter supplies, while USMEF warns limited China access is cutting producer profits.
December 19, 2025 01:05 PM
·
Lower milk prices may pressure margins, but strong cattle values could soften near-term financial impacts.
December 19, 2025 12:50 PM
·
Record ethanol production, coupled with stronger demand, supports corn use despite tighter margins elsewhere.
December 18, 2025 02:32 PM
·
