NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV)— U.S. cattle supplies remain historically tight, keeping a firm tone under beef prices into 2026.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates the total herd at about 86.7 million head on Jan. 1, 2025—near 70-year lows—while the July 1 inventory showed only a modest uptick in beef replacement heifers, signaling a slow rebuild at best.
Imports are backfilling the gap: ERS’s mid-year outlook pegged 2025 beef imports near 5.19 billion pounds, with only a slight pullback expected in 2026 as global exportable supplies tighten.
On the fed-cattle side, packers and feeders continue to lean on beef-on-dairy crosses. Industry analysts estimate that these calves could account for roughly a mid-teens share of the fed market (about 3.2 million head in 2024), with a notable presence in Southern High Plains yards—supporting uniform carcass quality and throughput even as native calf supplies remain light.
With constrained beef-cow numbers and a gradual rebuild, price breaks are more likely to come from demand or imports than from a surge in domestic cattle.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
Bubba and Amy Miller run Miller Cattle Company in Eros, Louisiana. After visiting other homesteading fairs, they decided to put on their own.
October 21, 2025 02:28 PM
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The new AFBF Women in Agriculture survey is accepting responses from women in the industry across the United States now through March 31.
October 21, 2025 01:56 PM
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Beef industry groups seem to agree — market-based pricing, not federal intervention, best supports rancher livelihoods and long-term beef supply stability.
October 21, 2025 11:22 AM
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Cattle groups say additional imports would offer little relief for consumers but could erode rancher confidence as the industry begins to rebuild herds.
October 21, 2025 11:06 AM
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The USDA’s latest Hogs and Pigs Report caught some analysts off guard. Inventories came in lower than expected, signaling tighter supplies ahead, even as producers return to profitability this year.
October 20, 2025 04:06 PM
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The government shutdown has touched nearly every sector of the ag industry since it began, and now impacts are spilling over into dairy.
October 20, 2025 12:46 PM
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Southern farms are deepening online engagement for cost savings and market access, while higher-cost precision technologies face renewed scrutiny amid tight budgets.
October 20, 2025 11:22 AM
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Slightly higher output amid softer gasoline pull points to steady corn grind — watch regional stocks and export pace for basis clues.
October 17, 2025 04:59 PM
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Expect firm calf and fed-cattle prices — pair selective heifer retention with prudent hedging and liquidity to bridge rebuilding costs.
October 17, 2025 04:54 PM
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