NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden is returning this morning to Washington, D.C., after spending the weekend in his home state of Tennessee. He told RFD-TV Markets Expert Tony St. James that there are bright spots right now, like cattle, but notes issues remain in other areas of the ag economy.
“For our row crop farmers, things have been tough — and they’ve not only been tough this year — they’ve been tough the prior two years,” Vaden told RFD-TV News. “That’s why the trade agreements that the president has been racking up in Southeast Asia and in East Asia, particularly with China, are so very important because they’re beginning to show up. We have had an increase in commodity prices over the past week. I’m certain all your viewers have seen that. We have breached $11 in the futures market. We’re at a 15-month high in terms of soybean prices, and they continue to go up. And that’s what we want to see at USDA because the numbers really are astounding when you add them up.”
Vaden says agriculture is at the “tip of the spear” in negotiations, often bearing the brunt of what he calls “regulatory blockades.”
“So, it’s not just a tax rate that’s at issue. It’s the fact that there are other barriers that have to be knocked down -- and that is one of the good things about President Trump, he goes in there and he gets their attention with his tariff rates and then he brings them to the table,” Vaden said. “And among the first things that he and his trade team say is, ‘OK, if we’re going to do any type of deal, whatsoever, you’re going to A) purchase more American agricultural commodities, and B) you’re going to give our American farmers full access to your market.’ That’s why, when you look at the Asia trip that the president just completed -- you look at Cambodia, Vietnam, Japan, Korea -- Barriers were falling across the board. You had multiple countries commit, not just to reducing the tariff rate to zero, but, for example, for all of our livestock producers, they’re going to recognize our food safety and inspection service inspections as valid.”
Vaden tells Tony St. James that the USDA’s stamp of approval is now enough for them, whereas before, it was not. He also said that dropping barriers means more sales—not just this year, but also in the future.
SCOTUS to Review Legality of Trump’s Tariffs
There has been a lot of action on the trade front over the last week. While some issues have been buttoned up, the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) warns that uncertainty still lingers.
“There’s still some uncertainty when we talk about agricultural trade, and that makes it harder for farmers to plan and make decisions. And so, when we talk about an ag economy that’s already feeling a lot of pain, the more certainty and the more open market access we can get for farmers, the better it will be.”
The Supreme Court (SCOTUS) will hear arguments in President Donald Trump’s tariff case this week. Justices will hear arguments beginning Wednesday, tasked with deciding if the mechanism President Trump used to roll out the tariffs was legal.
Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects the Supreme Court to uphold the tariffs. Bessent added that if the Court strikes down the tariffs, the Administration will switch to another tariff authority. However, if the court rules against the White House, the U.S. could be forced to refund the tariff revenue collected this year.
Farm Groups Push for USMCA to Continue
Farmers and ranchers are a resilient bunch, and despite all the uncertainty right now, one state ag leader says his producers are still holding strong.
“The farmers, the producers, the ranchers, they’re still plugging away, and it’s, you know, refreshing to see that,” said Washington State Department of Agriculture Director Derek Sandison. “As you said, there’s a lot of doom and gloom, a lot of negativity out there, but they’re still committed to making this work.”
Sandison says it is not all doom and gloom, though. He is seeing a lot of younger producers enter the scene with a big passion for ag technology and innovation, two big players in the ag space right now.
More than 100 farm and ranch groups are urging officials to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the North American trade pact, which will be up for review in July. The 2020 trade deal replaced NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement. If the countries choose not to renew, the USMCA will sunset in 2036.
Led by the National Corn Growers Association (NGCA), 124 agricultural groups have written to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, arguing that without the trade pact in place, farmer incomes would drop, and the industry would be saddled with more burdens in each country.
Of course, the largest deal of late has been China’s commitment to buy at least 75 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans over the next three years.
China’s Soybean Strains Highlight U.S. Opportunity
Mounting losses for Chinese soybean crushers are exposing the financial limits of China’s near-exclusive dependence on Brazil. This shift could reopen doors for U.S. exporters, according to China-market expert Dr. Fred Gale.
Despite processing nearly 87 million bushels the week of October 24, Chinese plants are operating at negative margins as Brazilian import costs rise and soymeal and oil prices remain weak. Buyers have slowed purchases in December-January and are reportedly seeking relief through government reserves or cheaper U.S. cargoes.
Gale notes that the rift has deepened into public frustration: Chinese news outlets accused Brazil of price-gouging and claimed millions of bushels were left to rot at port after traders resisted inflated offers. Social-media backlash reflected the tension once aimed at Washington — with comments calling Brazil “treacherous” and warning against overreliance on a single supplier.
For U.S. farmers, Gale says, this moment bears watching. If Chinese buyers regain access to competitively priced American soybeans, it could lift Gulf and Pacific Northwest basis levels heading into 2026 and stabilize demand after a volatile trade year.
