Trade
Tight cattle supplies keep prices high for ranchers, but policy shifts, export barriers, and packer losses signal a volatile road ahead for the beef supply chain.
Lewis Williamson, from HTS Commodities, joined us to share insights on the farm economy from producers in the field.
Despite tariffs having a less significant impact on exports, corn producers struggle with tariff-related increases on inputs, which complicates their bottom line.
Prepare for acute UAN risk and a brief urea shock; maintain steady ammonia and phosphate plans, and monitor potash basis on the coasts.
“A government shutdown impacts all Americans and has serious consequences, including for farmers. It just adds additional uncertainty, disrupts critical services.”
Agricultural exports continue to be a key contributor to rural employment. However, rural businesses still struggle to fill numerous job openings.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated this week that the government will intervene to help, following China’s withdrawal from the U.S. soybean market. One trader says the industry will remain in a holding pattern until Tuesday.
University of Illinois Ag Economist Gary Schnitker says early projections indicate soybeans will be more profitable than corn in 2026.
“In the first six months of 2025, 181 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed nationwide.”
Trump’s upcoming talks raise hopes for U.S. soybeans, but China’s record purchases from Brazil and Argentina show America’s market share remains under heavy pressure.
Farmers face tighter barge capacity and higher freight costs during peak harvest.
“MAKE SOYBEANS, AND OTHER ROW CROPS, GREAT AGAIN!”
Taiwan’s pledge to expand imports strengthens export prospects for U.S. row crops, livestock products, and specialty commodities, while the USDA’s broader trade push seeks to diversify farm markets globally.
“American soybean farmers—who are already reeling from your sweeping tariffs—deserve better.”
Imports
Cattle markets are collapsing this week, and analysts say that several factors are at play. Consumer beef prices also remain near all-time highs, threatening long-term demand.
The idea of buying more beef from Argentina does not sit well with much of farm country, raising some questions from analysts and producers.
Input costs are top of mind for farmers, as they contribute to higher prices and smaller profits.
Exports
Corn growers are turning to ethanol, E15 expansion, and export markets to help absorb record supplies and stabilize prices. Farm leaders discuss low-carbon ethanol demand, flex-fuel vehicle challenges, input costs, and the role of USMCA as producers look for market relief in the year ahead.
The Surface Transportation Board rejects the proposed Norfolk Southern–Union Pacific merger, prompting concerns from agricultural shippers about rail consolidation, service reliability, and higher transportation costs.
Freight volatility and route selection remain critical to soybean export margins and competitiveness.