WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Grain traders are waiting for an updated look at this year’s crops as the USDA prepares to release its latest Crop Progress report later today, delayed one day because of the Memorial Day holiday.
The report, which is typically released Monday afternoons, will instead be published today at 3 p.m. ET.
Planting Pace Continues Running Ahead of Average
The most recent USDA numbers show planting activity continuing at a rapid pace across much of the country.
Corn planting reached 76 percent complete, slightly ahead of the five-year average and roughly in line with last year’s pace. Soybean planting remains well ahead of normal, with 67 percent of the crop now planted compared to the five-year average of 53 percent. Meanwhile, 73 percent of the spring wheat crop has been planted nationwide.
Winter wheat conditions, however, remain under significant pressure. Just 28 percent of the crop is currently rated in the top category, sharply below the 52 percent rated good-to-excellent at this point last year.
USDA Forecast Points to Smaller Winter Wheat Crop
The trade is also preparing for what could become a significantly smaller U.S. winter wheat crop this season.
Mark Jekanowski, chairman of USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board, says current forecasts point toward tighter wheat supplies, though some estimates remain preliminary.
“Total U.S. production is down about 423 million bushels to about 1.56 billion bushels in terms of U.S. production,” Jekanowski says, noting that portions of the USDA’s spring wheat outlook are still based on prospective planting data and trend yield assumptions.
“While we get the winter wheat production forecast from NASS for spring wheat, we are still basing that part of the forecast on prospective plantings, expected trend yields, and whatnot,” he continues. “So, these numbers are still rather tentative, but they point to a much tighter wheat balance sheet for next year.”
USDA is currently forecasting U.S. wheat exports to increase by roughly 135 million bushels year-over-year, while average seasonal wheat prices are projected to rise by approximately $1.50 per bushel.
U.S. Wheat Highlights Quality Advantage As Global Competition Pressures Prices
Despite tighter supplies, U.S. wheat exports continue trending higher as international buyers seek consistent quality and reliable service. U.S. Wheat Associates says strong export demand continues to be driven by the dependability of U.S. wheat compared to some competing origins.
Farm Director KC Sheperd says customers around the world value the consistency of American wheat supplies.
“The thing we get from our customers all over the world is the quality,” Sheperd explains. “They know what they’re going to get. It’s dependable. They’re going to have the same consistency every time they use it compared to Russian wheat or Ukrainian wheat. So, that’s a big advantage we have. What we do that other countries don’t [...] We provide service.”
Sheperd says another major advantage is the technical support U.S. wheat organizations provide overseas buyers.
“We provide baking experts, milling experts. We go into those countries, do workshops — talking to them, teaching them how to get the most out of the U.S. wheat they buy — and no other countries do that, so we have that advantage.”
Even with stronger export demand, the industry continues facing intense global competition, particularly from Russia and Ukraine.
“Pricing is always a hurdle. There’s a lot of wheat on the market internationally,” he says. “Russia and Ukraine have produced a lot of wheat, continue to produce a lot of wheat, and that’s out there on the market. So that’s what we’re competing against.”
Sheperd says many international buyers remain highly price-sensitive, often turning to lower-cost suppliers when economic conditions tighten.
“What we do is to reinforce the quality, the service we provide,” he continues. “And then, when things work out, when the economies get better, we’ll be their number-one choice. So because of that service that we give them.”
To remain competitive, U.S. Wheat Associates continues to teach international customers blending techniques that enable millers and bakers to combine U.S. wheat with other varieties while maintaining quality standards and managing costs.
RFD-TV will have full market reaction and analysis following today’s updated Crop Progress numbers on Wednesday’s Market Day Report.
