Trump Eyes New Tariffs on Mexico and Canada, Citing Water Treaty and Fertilizer Concerns

Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — We begin this morning with new details on President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Both Canada and Mexico are now in the crosshairs again this week.

In a social media post, President Trump calls on Mexico to release water he says is required under the 1944 Water Treaty, saying Mexico’s failure is harming farmers and ranchers in Texas. If Mexico does not comply by the end of the year, Trump says it will be subject to a 5 percent tariff.

On the Canadian side, Trump says steep tariffs could hit fertilizer supplies coming from our northern neighbor. More than half of Canada‘s potash supply goes to the U.S. Trump says he wants more fertilizer production here in the United States, but no timeline was given for that proposal.

U.S. food costs could ease as new tariff exceptions and trade agreements expand access to key imported goods.

According to Dr. Luis Ribera, Professor and Director of the Center for North American Studies, the Trump administration’s recent actions target high-dependency products such as bananas, tea, coffee, cocoa, fruit juice, spices, tomatoes, and select fertilizers — many of which rely heavily on foreign supply.

Imports account for over 90 percent of U.S. consumption of bananas, tea, coffee, and cocoa, and more than 60 percent of imports of spices, tomatoes, and fruit juice. Canada leads in imports of fertilizers and cocoa products; Brazil dominates fruit juice and coffee; and Mexico supplies 85 percent of tomatoes.

The Trump Administration also announced new framework agreements with Ecuador, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Argentina, removing reciprocal tariffs on most exports to the United States. Together, those nations shipped $7.45 billion in agricultural goods to U.S. buyers last year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Dalton Henry, with U.S. Wheat Associates, joined RFD-TV to provide insight on what the pending trade frameworks may mean for American wheat growers.
Mary-Thomas Hart, with the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, discusses the latest WOTUS developments and their implications for agriculture.
Only properly documented, unexhausted fertilizer applied by prior owners may qualify for Section 180 expensing; broader nutrient-based claims carry significant legal and tax risk.
Urea and phosphate see the biggest price relief from tariff exemptions, but nitrogen markets remain tight, and spring demand will still dictate pricing momentum.
Cattle and hog supplies continue to tighten while dairy output expands, creating a split outlook in which red-meat prices soften and milk values come under pressure from larger supplies.
With feed supplies running tight, producers can tap into some creative options, according to University of Pennsylvania Veterinarian and Professor Dr. Joe Bender.
Firm live cow prices and shifting dairy-side culling suggest cull cow values may stay stronger than usual this winter despite weaker cow beef cutout trends.
Shawn Haney, Host of RealAg Radio on Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147, joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report with the latest news from Canada impacting the ag sector.
The new WOTUS proposal narrows federal jurisdiction, restores key agricultural exclusions, and gives farmers clearer permitting rules after years of regulatory uncertainty.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

She joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report to share more about her new cookbook, “Dishes and Devotions: Make Every Day Delicious,” which recently hit #1 in Amazon’s Cajun & Creole Cooking category.
$11 billion will go to row-crop farmers immediately, with $1 billion set aside for specialty crops.
Eastern Region VP Joey Nowotny of Delaware joins us on FFA Today to talk about his new leadership role and an exciting year ahead for the National FFA Organization.
Cattle imports from Mexico remain stalled amid the New World screwworm outbreak. At the same time, Tyson closures add pressure on Nebraska producers and markets ahead of the USDA’s upcoming Cattle on Feed Report.
Georgia has regained its HPAI-free status after a swift response to October’s detection. Commissioner Tyler Harper urges producers to stay vigilant and maintain biosecurity.
While this month’s WASDE report will not include updated figures on U.S. crop size, officials say it will offer a clearer picture of crop conditions in the Southern Hemisphere.