Trump Eyes New Tariffs on Mexico and Canada, Citing Water Treaty and Fertilizer Concerns

Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — We begin this morning with new details on President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Both Canada and Mexico are now in the crosshairs again this week.

In a social media post, President Trump calls on Mexico to release water he says is required under the 1944 Water Treaty, saying Mexico’s failure is harming farmers and ranchers in Texas. If Mexico does not comply by the end of the year, Trump says it will be subject to a 5 percent tariff.

On the Canadian side, Trump says steep tariffs could hit fertilizer supplies coming from our northern neighbor. More than half of Canada‘s potash supply goes to the U.S. Trump says he wants more fertilizer production here in the United States, but no timeline was given for that proposal.

U.S. food costs could ease as new tariff exceptions and trade agreements expand access to key imported goods.

According to Dr. Luis Ribera, Professor and Director of the Center for North American Studies, the Trump administration’s recent actions target high-dependency products such as bananas, tea, coffee, cocoa, fruit juice, spices, tomatoes, and select fertilizers — many of which rely heavily on foreign supply.

Imports account for over 90 percent of U.S. consumption of bananas, tea, coffee, and cocoa, and more than 60 percent of imports of spices, tomatoes, and fruit juice. Canada leads in imports of fertilizers and cocoa products; Brazil dominates fruit juice and coffee; and Mexico supplies 85 percent of tomatoes.

The Trump Administration also announced new framework agreements with Ecuador, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Argentina, removing reciprocal tariffs on most exports to the United States. Together, those nations shipped $7.45 billion in agricultural goods to U.S. buyers last year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
The Interior Department is proposing to repeal the Bureau of Land Management’s Public Lands Rule. This move would make huge strides to empower local decision-making and restore balance between conservation and protecting rural livelihoods tied to these public lands.
Mother-daughter RanchHER duo, Lyn and Sherrie Ray, joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report for a sneak peek at tonight’s brand new episode of FarmHER + RanchHER.
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins will travel to Europe and Asia to seek new trade partnerships for U.S. crops after China reduced imports due to tariffs.
Co-Bank Lead Dairy Economist, Corey Geiger, joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report for a further look at the drop in replacement heifers and the trend’s longterm impact on dairy producers and cattle prices.
The amendments affect BLM lands in several Western states. Comments on the Sage grouse proposals can be made to the BLM National NEPA Register until Oct. 3.
Mike Formica with the National Pork Producers Council joined us on Market Day Report with his reaction to the EPA’s rollback of a Biden-era wastewater discharge mitigation plan.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Roger McEowen with the Washburn University School of Law joined us to provide legal insight and context on these issues facing agriculture. Today, he discusses pesticide litigation.
Sen. Deb Fischer reintroduces the HAULS Act to update hours-of-service exemptions and definitions affecting livestock and agricultural haulers. She joins us on Market Day Report to share more about her proposed legislation.
Corn export strength remains a key demand anchor, while China’s continued involvement in soybeans and sorghum bears close watching for price direction.
Strong crush demand and rising ethanol production are pressuring feedstocks, as traders monitor storage risks and supply chain uncertainty and await the upcoming January WASDE report.
The U.S. Meat Export Federation plans to expand its global market presence in the New Year and says it is focusing its appeal on the growing middle class worldwide.
New World Screwworm cases in Mexico, including one within 200 miles of the U.S. border, are adding pressure to livestock markets and trade decisions.