Trump Eyes New Tariffs on Mexico and Canada, Citing Water Treaty and Fertilizer Concerns

Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — We begin this morning with new details on President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Both Canada and Mexico are now in the crosshairs again this week.

In a social media post, President Trump calls on Mexico to release water he says is required under the 1944 Water Treaty, saying Mexico’s failure is harming farmers and ranchers in Texas. If Mexico does not comply by the end of the year, Trump says it will be subject to a 5 percent tariff.

On the Canadian side, Trump says steep tariffs could hit fertilizer supplies coming from our northern neighbor. More than half of Canada‘s potash supply goes to the U.S. Trump says he wants more fertilizer production here in the United States, but no timeline was given for that proposal.

U.S. food costs could ease as new tariff exceptions and trade agreements expand access to key imported goods.

According to Dr. Luis Ribera, Professor and Director of the Center for North American Studies, the Trump administration’s recent actions target high-dependency products such as bananas, tea, coffee, cocoa, fruit juice, spices, tomatoes, and select fertilizers — many of which rely heavily on foreign supply.

Imports account for over 90 percent of U.S. consumption of bananas, tea, coffee, and cocoa, and more than 60 percent of imports of spices, tomatoes, and fruit juice. Canada leads in imports of fertilizers and cocoa products; Brazil dominates fruit juice and coffee; and Mexico supplies 85 percent of tomatoes.

The Trump Administration also announced new framework agreements with Ecuador, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Argentina, removing reciprocal tariffs on most exports to the United States. Together, those nations shipped $7.45 billion in agricultural goods to U.S. buyers last year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Ranchers have a lot going on at the moment, but some ‘friendly’ news could be coming with this month’s Cattle-on-Feed Report from the USDA.
Energy risks could reshape global ag trade flows.
The ag trade deficit is narrowing, but export competition remains strong.
E15 policy could shape future corn demand outlook.
The Trump Administration’s new rule limiting CDL renewals for immigrant truckers is seeing mixed reactions in agriculture. While some support the change, it is raising concerns about higher freight costs and impacts on U.S. grain export competitiveness.
At the Port of Brownsville, shrimpers are facing rising operating costs and increased competition, but many shrimp producers and local lawmakers remain optimistic about the industry’s future.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Farm legal expert Roger McEowen highlights the legal challenges surrounding stray voltage, a recent court decision, and what it means for agricultural producers.
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins shared a behind-the-scenes look at the journey as part of what’s being called the “Great American Egg Road Trip.”
Rising costs are significantly extending walnut profitability timelines.
Michael Cliver discusses his recent visit to the White House with the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, and the Trump Administration’s “Working Families Tax Cuts” impact on ranching families.
The 2026 Farm Bill advances out of committee, but political divisions delay final passage as lawmakers push to protect farmers, SNAP, and crop insurance programs.
Consistent sorghum quality supports strong export demand potential.