AUBURN, Ala. (RFD-TV) – Turkey supplies for the 2025 holiday season are projected to be lower, setting the stage for firmer prices heading into Thanksgiving.
Poultry economists note that poultry placements have lagged throughout most of the year, with both toms and hens down compared to 2024. While July egg sets ticked up one percent year-over-year, overall placements remain light, meaning fewer fresh birds will be available this fall. Frozen stocks are also below historical averages, suggesting tight supplies for the November holiday.
Wholesale fresh turkey prices are already trending higher. Small lot prices moved into the $1.55 per pound range in early September, up from last year’s levels, while larger buyers have held near $1.40 per pound under contracted terms. Analysts expect further increases as holiday demand builds and cold storage inventories are drawn down.
Adding to supply pressure is Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). The U.S Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports that more than 195,000 turkeys have been lost to HPAI outbreaks since August, with wildfowl migration increasing the risk of further spread this fall. Following the loss of over 18 million birds to HPAI in recent years, turkey production has remained below average, and recovery has been slow.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Farmers may benefit from higher turkey prices this holiday season, but risks from HPAI and limited poult placements could further strain the supply. Consumers should expect tighter availability and stronger prices for fresh and frozen birds at Thanksgiving.
Support policies that keep U.S. biofuels at the table—marine demand could materially lift corn grind, crush margins, and rural jobs.
October 15, 2025 03:47 PM
·
China is not one of our top suppliers of cooking oil, according to USDA ERS data, but does export a lot of used cooking oil to the U.S. for biofuel production.
October 15, 2025 12:13 PM
·
Industry leaders say $11 billion in new investments could turn the tide as dairy producers face shrinking margins and growing uncertainty.
October 15, 2025 11:53 AM
·
Expect firmer shop prices, leaner inventories, and selective hiring in ag-adjacent businesses — plan parts, service, and financing needs earlier.
October 15, 2025 11:35 AM
·
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined RFD-TV’s Market Day Report to share insight into what’s happening on the ground and in the markets.
October 14, 2025 04:30 PM
·
“USDA can no longer keep wasting its time and personnel to deploy Commissioner Miller’s infamous traps, which USDA has deployed, tested, and has proven ineffective.”
October 14, 2025 01:19 PM
·
Even in this strong market, some beef producers are leaving money on the table by not following proven marketing practices.
October 14, 2025 12:03 PM
·
New U.S. fees on Chinese-owned and built ships took effect overnight, marking the latest escalation in maritime trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
October 14, 2025 11:33 AM
·
“Good flies? Is that like a good fire ant?” Miller said. “I don’t know what a good fly is. I don’t know if they’re afraid to kill house flies or stable flies, but I’m ready to kill the screwworm fly.”
October 13, 2025 01:28 PM
·
