AUBURN, Ala. (RFD-TV) – Turkey supplies for the 2025 holiday season are projected to be lower, setting the stage for firmer prices heading into Thanksgiving.
Poultry economists note that poultry placements have lagged throughout most of the year, with both toms and hens down compared to 2024. While July egg sets ticked up one percent year-over-year, overall placements remain light, meaning fewer fresh birds will be available this fall. Frozen stocks are also below historical averages, suggesting tight supplies for the November holiday.
Wholesale fresh turkey prices are already trending higher. Small lot prices moved into the $1.55 per pound range in early September, up from last year’s levels, while larger buyers have held near $1.40 per pound under contracted terms. Analysts expect further increases as holiday demand builds and cold storage inventories are drawn down.
Adding to supply pressure is Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). The U.S Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports that more than 195,000 turkeys have been lost to HPAI outbreaks since August, with wildfowl migration increasing the risk of further spread this fall. Following the loss of over 18 million birds to HPAI in recent years, turkey production has remained below average, and recovery has been slow.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Farmers may benefit from higher turkey prices this holiday season, but risks from HPAI and limited poult placements could further strain the supply. Consumers should expect tighter availability and stronger prices for fresh and frozen birds at Thanksgiving.
Seasonal boxed beef softness does not change the tight-supply outlook — leverage remains closer to the farm gate heading into 2026.
January 07, 2026 06:00 AM
·
The U.S. Meat Export Federation plans to expand its global market presence in the New Year and says it is focusing its appeal on the growing middle class worldwide.
January 06, 2026 12:21 PM
·
New World Screwworm cases in Mexico, including one within 200 miles of the U.S. border, are adding pressure to livestock markets and trade decisions.
January 06, 2026 12:09 PM
·
Preserving equity through active risk management remains critical in a volatile, supply-driven market.
January 06, 2026 06:00 AM
·
Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.
January 05, 2026 03:00 PM
·
Shaun Haney, Host of
RealAg Radio on Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147, joined us with his 2026 cattle market outlook and insights on beef prices.
January 05, 2026 10:41 AM
·
As markets anticipate a return to normal trading following the New Year’s holiday, the possibility of the southern border re-opening to cattle is capturing much attention.
December 30, 2025 11:28 AM
Cuba remains a small but dependable, cash-only outlet for U.S. grain and food products.
December 27, 2025 03:00 PM
·
Strong global demand and falling stocks suggest continued price volatility for U.S. coffee buyers despite record world production.
December 26, 2025 03:00 PM
·
