Turkey Talk: AFBF Economist Provides Industry Outlook Ahead of Increased Thanksgiving Demand

AFBF Economist Bearnt Nelson joins us with insights into current turkey flock sizes, HPAI concerns, and production impacts on holiday demand.

DES MOINES, Iowa (RFD-TV) — With Thanksgiving just weeks away, many shoppers are beginning to add turkey to their grocery lists. But after a relatively quiet summer, High-Path Avian Influenza (HPAI) and another poultry disease are once again being detected in turkey flocks across the Upper Midwest, raising questions about potential impacts on supply and prices during the holiday season.

Bearnt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to share the latest outlook.

In his interview with RFD-TV News, Nelson discussed the recent uptick in HPAI cases, following several months of slowdown, and how the resurgence of the virus could impact turkey production. He also reviewed the USDA’s latest “Turkeys Raised” report, which offers insights into current flock sizes and what the numbers mean for upcoming holiday demand.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving, Nelson shared what consumers can expect at the checkout counter, including potential price trends and availability of holiday birds as farmers and processors work to keep the supply chain steady amid ongoing disease concerns.

Related Stories
Food demand is stable but price-sensitive across rural markets. For agriculture and rural communities, the important signal is not optimism — it is stability.
USDA Farmer Bridge Assistance payments could begin this weekend as producers face tight margins, shifting acreage expectations, cattle herd contraction, and growing pressure for a stronger farm safety net.
A stalled World Trade Organization appeals body increases long-term trade policy risk for U.S. agriculture.
Analysts warn the closed U.S.-Mexico border is straining cattle supplies and packing capacity. StoneX and USDA data point to long-term industry shifts.
USDA’s 2026 Food Price Outlook projects food prices rising 3.1%, with higher beef costs and falling egg prices shaping consumer trends.
High beef prices are squeezing South Texas restaurants, but Texas Farm Bureau says consumer demand remains strong despite record costs.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

NRECA CEO Jim Matheson warns that rising electricity demand from AI and data centers could strain the grid and affect rural electric cooperatives if U.S. power infrastructure cannot keep up.
Former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture and Kansas congressman Dan Glickman joined RFD News to share his outlook on agricultural policy, bipartisan cooperation, and the challenges facing farmers today.
The bill has already cleared the House Agriculture Committee and is headed toward a full House vote, but the timeline for final passage remains unclear. But the question is, when exactly? Could it possibly be a nice little gift for Easter?
Tidal Grow’s AlignN delivers encapsulated nitrogen to leaves, boosting in-season response, yield gains, and farm profits.
Katie Keener with the National Women in Agriculture Association joins us to celebrate women in agriculture and spotlight programs and initiatives aimed at empowering female producers across the country.
Nationwide’s Elizabeth Duncan and Traci Via with Agriculture Future of America highlight the impact of women in agriculture and how mentorship and partnerships empower future farmers and ranchers.
Agriculture Shows
From barnyards and back roads to metros and highways, Simply Southern TV on RFD Network explores all of Alabama to bring you the best stories on farming, gardening, forestry, rural living, and youth in agriculture.
In the first week of each month, “Down Home Virginia,” produced by the Virginia Farm Bureau, airs its half-hour program. Other states’ Farm Bureaus featured on different weeks include Texas, Arkansas, Indiana, Illinois, Tennessee, Idaho, and New York, and news from the American Farm Bureau from Washington, D.C.
Created by former Louisiana Farm Bureau PR Director and former host Regnal Wallace, “This Week in Louisiana Agriculture,” is one of the state’s longest-running TV programs.
From the rapid technological advances in the business of farming to the policy that helps shape the industry, growers get unparalleled perspective from these guys. Max Armstrong, Mike Pearson and Greg Soulje: the names producers have long known and trusted for agriculture news, weather, and commentary.