Turkey Talk: AFBF Economist Provides Industry Outlook Ahead of Increased Thanksgiving Demand

AFBF Economist Bearnt Nelson joins us with insights into current turkey flock sizes, HPAI concerns, and production impacts on holiday demand.

DES MOINES, Iowa (RFD-TV) — With Thanksgiving just weeks away, many shoppers are beginning to add turkey to their grocery lists. But after a relatively quiet summer, High-Path Avian Influenza (HPAI) and another poultry disease are once again being detected in turkey flocks across the Upper Midwest, raising questions about potential impacts on supply and prices during the holiday season.

Bearnt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to share the latest outlook.

In his interview with RFD-TV News, Nelson discussed the recent uptick in HPAI cases, following several months of slowdown, and how the resurgence of the virus could impact turkey production. He also reviewed the USDA’s latest “Turkeys Raised” report, which offers insights into current flock sizes and what the numbers mean for upcoming holiday demand.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving, Nelson shared what consumers can expect at the checkout counter, including potential price trends and availability of holiday birds as farmers and processors work to keep the supply chain steady amid ongoing disease concerns.

Related Stories
Low farmer shares reflect deep consolidation across the food chain, keeping producer returns thin even as retail food prices remain high.
The National Milk Producers Federation will launch a new advocacy campaign to secure a final vote, urging House lawmakers to approve the bill as soon as they return from the Thanksgiving recess.
Tyson’s Nebraska plant closure and falling Cattle on Feed numbers send cattle markets tumbling. Analysts warn of tighter supplies, weak margins, and rising global competition.
Texas Ag Commissioner Sid Miller warns horse owners after EHV-1 cases linked to the Waco WPRA Finals. Horses linked to recent Waco events should be isolated and closely monitored, as early action is critical to stopping the spread of EHV-1.
Leslee Oden, president of the National Turkey Federation, and Jay Jandrain, CEO of Butterball, joined us in the studio on Monday to discuss the history, significance, and expectations surrounding this year’s presidential turkey pardon.
Screwworm.gov has targeted resources for a wide range of stakeholders, including livestock producers, veterinarians, animal health officials, wildlife professionals, healthcare providers, pet owners, researchers, drug manufacturers, and the general public.
An outbreak of Equine Herpesvirus Type 1 (EHV-1) first appeared after livestock events in Texas and Arizona, and some horses have already died.
Removing the 40% duty sharply lowers U.S. beef import costs on beef, coffee, fertilizer and fruit, and restores Brazil’s competitiveness during a period of tight domestic supply.

Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.