NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. beef exports continue to lose momentum as tight cattle supplies and higher prices reshape demand in key international markets.
New trade data show beef exports are down about 17% through the first five months of the year and remain well below the record pace set in 2022. South Korea is now the top destination for U.S. beef, followed by Japan, while exports to China have fallen sharply. Taiwan is one of the few major markets posting year-over-year growth.
Oklahoma State University livestock economist Derrell Peel said export demand depends on more than just the amount of beef available.
“When you think about changes in this, you have to consider both possibilities—what’s happening to beef prices as well as what’s happening to disposable income,” Peel said. “When we’ve had periods in the past with recessions or other impacts on disposable income, that alone can change demand, as well as changes in beef prices.”
Peel said consumer purchasing power and higher beef prices are combining to influence buying decisions in overseas markets as global customers adjust to tighter U.S. cattle supplies.
Traders Await Key USDA Cattle Reports
Analysts say the cattle market is also adjusting to changing supply and demand dynamics at home.
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX Financial, said market participants are taking a step back to evaluate whether current prices accurately reflect the evolving outlook.
“Open interest is near a two-year low,” Suderman said. “Everybody has taken a step back—producers, users and everyone in between—to reassess. Have we properly priced in these new dynamics now of still-tight supplies but softer consumer demand? That consumer demand seems to be moving down the value chain to pork, and they’re enjoying some of the benefits of that.”
Suderman said traders are looking for fresh fundamental data to determine the market’s next direction.
USDA is scheduled to release its monthly Cattle on Feed report along with its semiannual Cattle Inventory report Friday afternoon, offering an updated look at herd numbers and feedlot placements.
Study Warns M-COOL Could Raise Meat Costs
Meanwhile, a new study is raising concerns about the potential cost of reinstating mandatory country-of-origin labeling (M-COOL) for beef and pork.
The analysis, conducted by Decision Innovation Solutions, examined the 2013 M-COOL framework and estimated that implementing a similar program today could cost the meat industry more than $1 billion in the first year and nearly $5 billion over five years.
The study also concluded those additional costs would likely be passed on to consumers through higher retail prices for beef and pork.
Congress repealed mandatory country-of-origin labeling requirements for beef and pork in 2015 after the policy faced trade challenges and concerns about retaliation.
