NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — The USDA’s September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report tightened the outlook for corn and cotton, raised soybean exports, and left the U.S. wheat balance sheet largely unchanged.
Corn production fell 213 million bushels to 15.8 billion after yield dropped 2.2 bushels to 178.5 per acre. Ending stocks declined to 1.6 billion bushels, while the season-average farm price increased 30 cents to $4.80.
Soybean production increased 16 million bushels to 4.5 billion, with exports rising 25 million to 1.69 billion. Ending stocks fell to 310 million bushels, and the farm price increased 60 cents to $12. Wheat supplies and use were unchanged, but the farm price rose 20 cents to $6.40.
Cotton production dropped 3% to 13.2 million bales as yield fell to 776 pounds per harvested acre. Ending stocks declined to 3.60 million bales, while the upland farm price increased to 78 cents per pound.
Elsewhere, USDA lowered 2026 beef and pork production and raised milk production. World corn stocks also declined, while global wheat stocks increased.
Arlan Suderman with StoneX joined RFD News’ Tony St. James on Friday’s Market Day Report, just after the report’s release, to break down how the markets reacted in real time and digest its contents.
Corn Yield Forecast Falls
USDA lowered its corn yield estimate to 178.5 bushels per acre, down from 180.7 bushels per acre last month. The figure was close to the trade’s expectation of 178.2 bushels per acre.
Soybean yields were estimated at 52.8 bushels per acre, slightly above the trade expectation of 52.5 bushels and up from 52.7 bushels per acre last month.
While the yield numbers were generally close to expectations, Suderman said the market had been preparing for a corn yield above 180 bushels per acre.
“I think the big concern was that maybe that corn yield was going to be over 180,” Suderman said. “I think the market was preparing for that news. And when it didn’t get it, now we can move higher.”
Corn Ending Stocks Also Lower
For the current marketing year, corn ending stocks were projected at 1.567 billion bushels, down about 90 million bushels from last month’s estimate. The figure was about 40 million bushels above the trade expectation.
USDA also reduced feed and residual use by 150 million bushels for the current marketing year.
The next major data point will be the quarterly grain stocks report scheduled for September 30. That report will provide additional information about feed usage during the marketing year that ended August 31.
St. James noted that some in the industry believe USDA previously overstated feed usage. If USDA cuts the size of last year’s crop, that could reduce the amount of feed usage needed to balance the numbers. However, he said such a change would have broader implications.
The reduction in feed usage in the latest report could also signal further adjustments.
St. James said the margin for error is now relatively small with the current corn crop. Any further reduction in the October report would be viewed as supportive for the market.
The report comes as markets have already experienced significant volatility, with prices moving sharply ahead of and immediately following the WASDE release.
Money Flow Driving Market Moves
Suderman said this week’s trading has demonstrated how money flow and algorithmic trading can amplify market moves.
“The bottom line is the market was not really trading fundamentals,” St. James said, describing the market action ahead of the report.
Suderman said money flow has followed headlines and driven some of the volatility: “We’re just always one headline away from all this collapsing,” he said.
Producers Encouraged to Watch Margins
With markets moving quickly, St. James encouraged producers to stay in contact with their suppliers and monitor input costs, including diesel and fertilizer. He said producers should “push the pencil” and evaluate their individual farm margins.
“When they see a profitable margin, you can never go broke selling at a profit,” St. James said. “You can start scaling in your sales when you see those opportunities.”
He encouraged producers to consider scaling into sales when market rallies create profitable opportunities rather than waiting for a single target.
