NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV)—The cattle industry has experienced a significant windfall lately, driven by high prices and steady demand for beef around the world.
However, concerns are growing that positive momentum for the industry could come to a screeching halt at any point, given mounting industry concerns — such as the smallest cattle herd in decades, fewer cattle on feed, rising domestic imports, and the growing threat of New World Screwworm from Mexico.
Bar Chart’s Darin Newsom explained in an interview with RFD-TV News that as the beef industry becomes increasingly stretched, it will eventually snap.
“It’s like a rubber band being stretched—when a rubber band stretches to its max, it snaps and returns to its base, and the base in any commodity market is its fundamentals,” Newsome said. “ So, if we have commercials selling and non-commercials buying, at some point, non-commercials are going to throw in the towel because the fundamentals don’t support the move.”
Newsom said he sees this risk in both live and feeder cattle, noting there are a lot of moving parts in those markets right now.
Feedlot Placements & Marketings Drop as Supplies Tighten
The latest Cattle on Feed report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows feedlot activity slowed sharply in August, signaling tighter supplies moving into fall.
As of September 1, feedlots with 1,000 head or more reported 11.1 million cattle on feed, down 1.1 percent from last year. Placements fell to 1.78 million head, 9.9 percent lower than August 2024 and the lowest August total since 2015. Marketings dropped to 1.57 million head, down 13.6 percent year over year, the lowest for any August since records began in 1996.
Regional data highlights shifting dynamics. Texas, Nebraska, and Kansas typically account for about two-thirds of all cattle on feed. This year, Nebraska and Kansas both posted gains of 4.7 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively, while Texas placements fell 18 percent, leaving its total 9.1 percent below the previous year.
Rebuilding the U.S. Herd — Plan Unknown
The Trump Administration is set to release plans this week detailing its vision for rebuilding the U.S. cattle herd, which is the smallest it has been since 1961. Those plans remain a mystery for now.
Markets expert Arlan Suderman explained to RFD-TV’s own Scott Shellady on Cow Guy Close why he believes the government is getting involved.
“The problem is there is such a financial incentive right now to sell those young heifers, to feed them into feedlots and to sell them for meat and get this tremendous money that they’re being sold -- rather than hold them back and not see a return on that investment for three or four years,” Sudderman said. “That’s an uncertain return at best. So, President Trump may be looking at some type of financial incentive in order to incentivize them holding on for the longer-term investment.”
Analysts note the closure of the southern border to Mexican feeder imports due to screwworm concerns has tightened Texas supplies, narrowing the gap with northern states.
Sid Miller: We Know Exactly How to Stop Screwworm in Texas
The outbreak of New World Screwworm in Mexico is also contributing to concerns over long-term cattle market stability, especially following news this week that a new case of the parasite was reported just 70 miles from the U.S. border. Officials worry that it could devastate the already fragile herd numbers if it were to enter the U.S.
Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report to discuss the growing threat to cattle health in his state.
Miller said he is urging the administration to begin using bait traps, which he says worked the last time there was a screwworm outbreak in Texas. Miller argued that prior tests using the new bait eliminated 90 percent of the flies within two to four weeks.
“I’ve been pushing a fly bait that was developed in the 1970s that kills 90% of the screwworm flies,” Miller told RFD-TV News. “Then you can come behind that with the sterile flies and clean it up. We had a significant outbreak in 1976 — 30,000 cases in Texas. We employed a one-two punch with bait and sterile flies. In the next spring, we had 39 cases, so it works.”
The technique Miller is talking about to combat screwworm is a 1970s-era control method similar to “Swarm Lures” used by apiarists in beekeeping. In the case of screwworm flies, however, traps are engineered to emit a scent that mimics an open wound, attracting the flies to the bait. Once they reach the trap, they die. He said the remaining flies are wiped out using sterile male flies in the same area.
Combatting Screwworm at the U.S.-Mexico Border
Cattle producers along the border are tightening safety protocols following the latest detection of New World Screwworm in Mexico, just 70 miles from the Texas border. The discovery raises fresh concerns about the threat to U.S. herds and the ongoing challenge of controlling the parasite.
Wayne Cockrell with the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report to share what it’s been like working through an outbreak so close to home and what it could take to protect and rebuild the U.S. herd.
In his interview with RFD-TV News, Cockrell explained the renewed risk this latest case poses for Texas producers, the current use of sterile fly releases in Mexico, and the expected role of a sterile fly facility in Texas.
Cockrell discussed the continued delay in cattle movement across the border and its impact on producers, as well as his association’s support for the USDA’s effort to hold Mexico accountable for its failures in screwworm management. He also shares key steps and resources producers can consult to safeguard their herds.
