Most trade partners are still purchasing U.S. commodities for now, and traffic has been strong in recent weeks; however, one trader notes that buyers are becoming increasingly cautious.
“You know, the funds remain short in the corn and wheat market,” said Ben Kasch with Bower Trading. “They’re kind of flat on the soybean side of things, but you know that they just haven’t had a willingness to go long. And I think, you know, looking at the tariff situation has made them comfortable here being short.”
This week’s export sales brought good news for corn. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that shipments could surpass 22 percent of the total by the end of this marketing year, reaching 500 million bushels. Key buyers include South Korea, Mexico, and Spain.
China Changes Course on U.S. Commodities
China was once the top importer of corn, accounting for 30 percent of U.S. corn export sales in 2021. Earlier this year, that number had dropped to less than one percent. While China is largely absent from the U.S. grain markets, numbers this week show they still have interest in U.S. hides.
“Yeah, it’s not what we want them to buy, but at least they’re buying something,” said Brian Hoops, President at Midwest Market Solutions. “And again, it’s probably only when they have to buy it from the U.S. that they’re going to come to the U.S. market. So, that’s something we’re trying to change, and it’s a little pain here in the short term. Hopefully, it’s a longer-term benefit to get a new trade agreement worked out with China, and hopefully, they honor it. As you know, they didn’t quite meet the phase one trade agreements the first time around.”
Leadership Changes Coming in Ag Trade
Farmers and ranchers could soon have a new advocate in trade talks with China.
This week, President Donald Trump nominated Julie Callahan to be the next U.S. Chief Agricultural Negotiator. Trade is nothing new for Callahan -- she has spent nearly a decade with the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office and currently serves as Assistant Trade Representative for Agriculture and Commodity Policy.
Nearly 50 agricultural groups wrote to the White House this month, urging the president to move forward with the nomination. The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) was one such group. NCGA leaders say the chief ag negotiator role is an asset to America’s farmers and ranchers.
Questions Remain Over E.U. Trade Negotiations
If confirmed, Callahan would replace Doug McCalip. In a letter to the Senate, the president stated that McKalip has stepped down from the role he has held since late 2022. If confirmed, Callahan will face immediate challenges. The European Union faces steep tariffs next month and is also considering new ones of its own.
A report from Agri-Pulse indicates that E.U. officials are developing a contingency plan in case a deal is not reached before Trump’s August 1 deadline. The E.U. faces a 30 percent tariff on U.S. goods if no agreement is reached with the White House. More than $7 billion in agri-food exports would be affected, with fruits and vegetables taking the biggest hit.
