WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Positive signals are starting to pop up across cattle country in efforts to rebuild the U.S. herd, but many caution that the outlook is still uncertain.
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Chief Economist Justin Benavidez warns that while the USDA data shows a slight year-over-year uptick in heifers, those numbers don’t tell the entire story.
“Cattle profitability is all based on the cycle. We know now, looking back over 100 years, that the U.S. cattle cycle is a very well-documented phenomenon,” Benavidez explains. “We’re at a point where I do think the earliest indicators of herd rebuilding are starting. Now, it’s debated. I hear people have given me very passionate comments on both sides of [the discussion] — we’re not retaining heifers, or we are — and USDA’s data on either side doesn’t tell the full story. You know, I hear it from all ends, so it’s really interesting.
Benavidez said the USDA cattle herd data is surveyed the same each year. So, even if the immediate answer is a little off, the data as a whole presents a pattern that can be tracked and trusted over time.
“What USDA’s data is telling us — in that pattern over time — is that we’re seeing the earliest indicators of a herd rebuild,” he continues. “So, a slight retention in heifer uptick year-over- year. That, to me, would indicate it’s the first sign of a rebuild.”
Benavidez says strong cattle prices also point to expansion, but weather and forage availability could present challenges.
“I think the market is pushing for a rebuild. I think we’re at the point where prices are motivating a rebuild,” Benavidez explains. “Some of those weather concerns, lack of forage, is going to make it a little bit questionable about whether we guarantee a herd rebuild next year if the data says more cattle next year than we have this year.”
On the other hand, he says there may be a year-over-year uptick in heifer retention in early 2027, as livestock feed prices are currently at the low end.
“If I were guessing, I would say we will probably see more heifers retained in January of next year than we saw in January of this year,” Benavidez says. “That does not mean an immediate overnight loss in price, but I think we’ll begin that gradual turn back down with lower prices, higher inventories year over year, and begin the other end of the cycle.”
Benavidez says the cattle industry may be nearing a turning point that could gradually reshape supply, prices, and profitability in the years ahead.
Just last month, USDA launched the National Feeder and Stocker Cattle Dashboard, a tool to help ranchers and traders navigate the markets and support a wide range of needs across the cattle sector.
“Not only producers utilize this, but we have feed yards as well as packers look at this information so they can make marketing decisions, whether it be current or whether it be in the future for four, five, six months, even a year out,” Benavidez says. “So, especially with the feedlot placements, the producers can actually see some of these over 600 pounds and extrapolate by utilizing some other USDA reports to where the placements could possibly be.”
In addition to new feedlot data access, Benavidez says data cowherd retention is also a great resource for producers to make real-time decisions on marketings.
“The cow herd retention, whenever we have the percent heifers that are going through auctions, and we can then extrapolate: ‘Okay, is the herd expansion going to happen? Are we in contraction, or are we just in status quo?’” He explains. “Producers can actually look at these prices to make some of their marketing decisions for the coming week, and see whether they want to procure more cattle or whether they just want to stay on the sidelines for a week or so, and just to kind of let the market settle somewhere where they feel the most comfortable to procure those animals.”
USDA officials say the tool has been especially helpful to track rebuilding efforts at such a critical time, with the U.S. beef herd at its lowest level in more than 70 years.
LEARN MORE: National Feeder and Stocker Cattle Dashboard
