USDA Livestock Outlook Shows Tight Beef Supply Pressure

Tight cattle supplies should keep beef prices supported, while dairy, pork, and poultry are poised for greater production growth.

ARGENTINIAN CATTLE_PHOTO BY FOTO4440 VIA AdobeStock_256925881.jpg

Steers in a pasture in Pampas, Argentina.

Photo by foto4440 via Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Tight cattle supplies remain the strongest signal in the USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, with beef production lowered for 2026 and expected to decline again in 2027. USDA now forecasts 2026 beef production at 25.547 billion pounds, down 243 million pounds from last month.

Cattle prices are projected to be higher this year, with new highs expected in 2027 as supplies stay limited. Beef imports are forecast to be higher in 2026, while exports are expected to soften next year due to lower production.

Dairy looks steadier. USDA projects the dairy herd at 9.620 million head in both 2026 and 2027, with higher milk yield lifting 2027 production to 236.0 billion pounds. The 2027 all-milk price is forecast at $20.95 per hundredweight.

Pork production is expected to rise 1 percent in 2027, while hog prices decline. Pork exports are forecast to rise, driven by demand in the Western Hemisphere.

Broiler, egg, and turkey production are all projected to increase year-over-year in 2027.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight cattle supplies should keep beef prices supported, while dairy, pork, and poultry are poised for greater production growth.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Related Stories
EU simplification may reduce some paperwork, but U.S. exporters still face costly traceability requirements.
Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.
U.S. beef imports are running at a record pace while exports are falling, reflecting tight domestic cattle supplies and high U.S. beef prices.
Scouts say yields are landing close to USDA projections as they monitor drought pressure and abandonment concerns.
U.S. Wheat Associates is expanding into global fish feed markets, with early gains in South America and new opportunities emerging in Ecuador’s shrimp industry.
Cattle analysts say the U.S. beef cattle herd rebuild still faces major hurdles despite some minor positive signals noted in certain regions.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Farmers are closely watching upcoming U.S.-China trade talks as rising fertilizer and diesel costs continue to pressure exports, margins, and rural economies.
Dr. David Anderson says lean beef demand and lighter cow culling are still giving cull cow prices room to push higher.
Stronger overseas demand for both fuel ethanol and feed co-products continues to reinforce corn use beyond the domestic market.
The inverted Choice-Select spread is not a strong warning sign in today’s tighter, higher-quality beef market, according to new analysis from Terrain.
Based on USDA data compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation, pork exports increased by six percent in March compared to the previous year, while beef exports weakened overall.
Genevieve Collins from Americans for Prosperity discusses rising Texas property taxes, potential relief, and impacts on farmers, ranchers, and rural communities.