USDA Livestock Outlook Shows Tight Beef Supply Pressure

Tight cattle supplies should keep beef prices supported, while dairy, pork, and poultry are poised for greater production growth.

ARGENTINIAN CATTLE_PHOTO BY FOTO4440 VIA AdobeStock_256925881.jpg

Steers in a pasture in Pampas, Argentina.

Photo by foto4440 via Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Tight cattle supplies remain the strongest signal in the USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, with beef production lowered for 2026 and expected to decline again in 2027. USDA now forecasts 2026 beef production at 25.547 billion pounds, down 243 million pounds from last month.

Cattle prices are projected to be higher this year, with new highs expected in 2027 as supplies stay limited. Beef imports are forecast to be higher in 2026, while exports are expected to soften next year due to lower production.

Dairy looks steadier. USDA projects the dairy herd at 9.620 million head in both 2026 and 2027, with higher milk yield lifting 2027 production to 236.0 billion pounds. The 2027 all-milk price is forecast at $20.95 per hundredweight.

Pork production is expected to rise 1 percent in 2027, while hog prices decline. Pork exports are forecast to rise, driven by demand in the Western Hemisphere.

Broiler, egg, and turkey production are all projected to increase year-over-year in 2027.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight cattle supplies should keep beef prices supported, while dairy, pork, and poultry are poised for greater production growth.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Triangle H received the 2022 Feedyard Commitment to Excellence Award from Certified Angus Beef, gaining national recognition for its cattle care and quality.
Corn exports remained active the week of May 7, but weak soybean, cotton, and sorghum sales kept attention on China and late-year demand.
Cotton growers can use the survey to compare nutrient, herbicide, and pest-management practices against national production benchmarks.
Higher food costs are showing up beyond the grocery aisle, with some major restaurant chains shrinking their U.S. footprint.
Drought and Planting Shape Weekly State Agriculture Recap
Fred Nichols with Huma joins us to discuss the 4 R’s of nutrient stewardship and how farmers are adapting best practices in today’s evolving ag economy.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Potato growers now have a fresh benchmark for comparing fertilizer, pesticide, and pest-management practices across major production states.
Corey Rosenbusch, President & CEO of The Fertilizer Institute, discusses fertilizer markets transparency efforts and the steps to ensure long-term stability for farmers and the ag economy.
Egg production accounted for much of the increase.
Farm Bureau Economist Dr. Faith Parum joins us to break down what year-round E15 passage could mean for agriculture, energy markets, and the future of renewable fuels in the United States.
A tax preparer can help identify penalty and interest charges and determine whether Form 843 should be filed.
Thailand will not replace major corn buyers overnight, but renewed access could create another outlet for U.S. corn demand.