USDA Plans Crop Reviews to Explain Forecast Accuracy

Annual review will track how USDA crop estimates change throughout the growing season

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD News) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) plans to release a new annual review showing how crop forecasts changed during the growing season and how those estimates compared with final numbers, part of a broader effort to rebuild producer confidence in agricultural statistics.

The Crop Season in Review report will compare estimates and forecasts issued throughout each season with final estimates and identify the data sources used. USDA will begin by preparing retrospective reports for the 2024 and 2025 crop seasons.

The department also plans to publish performance measures, validation results, and lessons learned from major modernization pilots. The department will continue methodology and quality documentation for major statistical releases.

USDA says producer trust has weakened as survey response rates declined and questions grew about how it develops agricultural estimates. The modernization effort includes additional listening sessions and direct producer feedback.

For farmers and market participants, the annual review could provide a clearer record of where estimates changed and what information drove those revisions.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Season-end forecast reviews could give producers greater visibility into how USDA estimates evolve and why final crop numbers differ.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

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