NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — A softer U.S. dollar is providing only modest support for agricultural exports, with underlying supply and demand remaining the primary drivers of trade.
Analysis from Terrain economist Matt Clark, “The U.S. Dollar Dilemma,” shows the U.S. Dollar Index has declined more than 12 percent since early 2025, typically a signal of improved export competitiveness. However, that index is heavily weighted toward currencies such as the euro, yen, and pound, which account for a relatively small share of U.S. agricultural trade.
When adjusted for actual trading partners, the picture changes. Trade-weighted exchange rates for crops and tree nuts are only about 1.2 percent below recent averages, while livestock exchange rates are slightly higher than in 2023 and 2024. That suggests limited improvement in purchasing power among key buyers such as China and Mexico.
Currency moves are also being offset by global dynamics. Competing exporters, including Brazil, are seeing similar currency shifts, reducing any advantage from a weaker dollar.
With global supplies of major commodities still ample, export growth will depend more on demand conditions than currency movement alone.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Exports depend more on demand than currency shifts.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Bernt Nelson provides an updated outlook on the current U.S. cattle market.
October 23, 2025 02:20 PM
·
Sen. Roger Marshall explains which types of beef are imported into the United States, how there’s room for new imports, and logical reasons for current high prices.
October 23, 2025 12:10 PM
·
Record Australian exports and rising U.S. imports reflect continued tight domestic cattle supplies — a reminder that herd recovery remains key to balancing future beef prices.
October 23, 2025 11:56 AM
·
Australia’s expanding harvest and global oversupply are keeping wheat and barley prices capped, though canola markets may hold firmer on shifting oilseed demand.
October 23, 2025 10:17 AM
·
Bioethanol continues to gain ground as the bridge fuel connecting agriculture, aviation, and maritime industries in the global shift toward lower-carbon energy.
October 23, 2025 10:14 AM
·
Expanding bioethanol use strengthens rural economies, supports farm markets, and positions U.S. agriculture at the center of global low-carbon trade.
October 23, 2025 10:10 AM
·
