TAMPA, FLA. (RFD NEWS) — We are just days away from a key USDA report set for release Tuesday, and traders say it could bring added volatility to already sensitive crop markets.
The Acreage Report is one of the most influential data sets released by the USDA each year. But one trader says the results may be more uncertain than usual, due in part to a weakening in survey response rates.
“They are surveys from the producers. So, to be quite honest, the survey response rate has been falling dramatically over the last couple of years, which means you’re not getting quite as good data points,” Jim McCormick EXPLAINS. “And that will leave some room for some error. A year ago, the difference between the March survey and the final corn acreage number was an increase of 3 million acres. So what I tell the listeners out there, we’re going to trade this. As I mentioned, the computers are going to run with it, and we need to trade with it. That’ll be the number we use in the July WASDE from here on out until we get the more solid answers on acreage when everyone certifies their acres from, you know, the insurance levels.”
Markets have already seen significant volatility in recent weeks, with both energy and weather playing major roles in price direction. One oilseed analyst says energy remains a key driver.
“We’ve seen volatility in energy markets is not new,” Owen Wagner said. “Talk to any trade, energy trader about that. And you know, as a growing share of U.S. ag commodities have been roped into the energy complex, we sort of have to take the good with the bad. So I would say that’s probably the biggest aspect of it. I do think that the commodity markets have become a little less focused on the day-to-day headlines related to brinksmanship in trade negotiations. So that’s a positive. But again, there’s no turning our back on $120 oil falling back to, you know, oil prices below $80.”
Weather is adding another layer of uncertainty, with more than half of the Lower 48 currently experiencing drought conditions.
Those conditions are already affecting harvest activity in key growing regions.
In Kansas, where winter wheat harvest is underway, one trader and farmer says recent rain has been both a help and a challenge.
“We’re in the midst of wheat harvest out here in Kansas,” Brady Huck said. “The combines continue to roll north if they’re able to. We’ve had a lot of rain over the last week in spots, so that’s slowed some of the combines down, and it’s hit and miss. I wish we could have bought a rain in April, May, or June. You buy an April, May rain for this wheat crop, and that really makes that wheat crop. So wheat rallied up to 750 here in May and has sold off significantly. June is not a great month for wheat, historically. Farmers are facing some tough decisions here as we go forward: Do I sell that crop or do I stick it in the bin and wait for higher prices?”
Huck says farmers should also weigh storage decisions as the harvest continues.
The latest Crop Progress Report shows 40 percent of the winter wheat crop is now in the bin, while just 26 percent is rated good to excellent.
The USDA Acreage Report will be released on Tuesday at noon ET. Full coverage will be available on the Market Day Report.
Attention is also shifting beyond the current crop to next year’s input costs, where fertilizer markets are facing renewed uncertainty. The issue has reached a global scale, including in South America, where Brazil remains a major player in global grain markets.
Researchers at Purdue University say there could be challenges ahead for Brazilian producers, starting with fertilizer supplies and costs.
“The fertilizer costs are one of the main reasons to question whether Brazil’s corn and soybean production outlook will be fully realized,” explained Joanna Colussi. “Prices have come down from recent peaks, but they remain high enough to affect planting and input use decisions. Brazil is highly dependent on imported fertilizer. Unlike the United States, Brazil doesn’t have a strong domestic fertilizer industry. In 2025, fertilizer imports accounted for about 88 percent of total fertilizer consumption in Brazil.”
Colussi says Brazilian corn and soybean farmers are currently operating near break-even levels, close to their lowest margins in nearly two decades.
That global pressure is also showing up in fertilizer markets tied directly to U.S. production, where disruptions in sulfur supplies are raising concerns about key crop nutrient availability.
Ben Pratt with The Mosaic Company joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to discuss how sulfur availability is affecting fertilizer production and what it could mean for farmers heading into upcoming growing seasons.
In his interview with RFD News, Pratt explained the connection between sulfur and phosphate fertilizer production, noting that sulfuric acid is a critical input for converting phosphate rock into phosphoric acid, a key component in many fertilizer products.
He also discussed how disruptions tied to Iran-related conflict and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have affected global sulfur flows, and why those changes matter for fertilizer manufacturing and supply chains in the U.S.
Pratt addressed the challenges a sulfur shortage can create across the fertilizer supply chain, from production facilities to distribution channels and ultimately to farm-level input availability.
Those constraints, he said, are being felt across the supply chain — from production facilities to distribution networks and ultimately to farm-level input decisions heading into next season.
LEARN MORE: www.mosaicco.com
