NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — A new report from the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute shows that Thanksgiving dinner is one of the few bright spots for food budgets this fall.
While grocery prices overall remain up 2.7 percent from a year ago, a traditional 10-person Thanksgiving meal is 2-3 percent cheaper than last year, thanks to lower turkey prices, aggressive retailer promotions, and national-brand competition with private-label products.
Wells Fargo’s analysis — led by Dr. Michael Swanson, Robin Wenzel, and Courtney Schmidt — places an all-private-label dinner at $80, while an all-national-brand basket reaches $95.
Turkey remains the most significant contributor to savings, with national-brand whole-bird prices down 3.7 percent from last year after producers and retailers aligned inventories early.
Frozen vegetables also delivered significant year-over-year declines for national brands, down 15 percent, even as private-label vegetables held steady. Other key meal components showed mixed movement: private-label dinner rolls fell 22 percent, gravy mix, stuffing, and fresh cranberries dropped 3–4 percent, and national-brand pumpkin pies eased 3 percent. Prepared mashed potatoes — a fast-growing convenience item — slipped 1.5 percent on strong supplies and brand-to-brand competition.
Most remaining items were flat or slightly higher. Prepackaged salad mix rose 0.3 percent, and whipping cream gained 3 percent, reflecting broader dairy trends. Beverage categories moved in different directions: beer is up 3 percent, wine is flat, and soft drinks split — 12-oz cans down 3 percent, but 2-liter bottles up 7 percent, though still roughly 31 percent cheaper per ounce than cans.
Overall, Wells Fargo says strategic brand choices give consumers unusual flexibility this year, keeping the cost of a full holiday meal at one of the most affordable points since inflation began accelerating.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Retail competition and improved supplies are helping offset food-inflation pressure, pushing Thanksgiving meal costs modestly lower despite higher prices in beef, eggs, and dairy.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Enjoy special programming as you gather to feast and give thanks with your family, featuring a re-cap of the 98th National FFA Convention, special airings of favorite music programs, and a “Lonesome Dove” marathon.
November 18, 2025 01:29 PM
With feed supplies running tight, producers can tap into some creative options, according to University of Pennsylvania Veterinarian and Professor Dr. Joe Bender.
November 18, 2025 01:13 PM
·
Feel the earth move as beautiful Belgians, powerful Percherons, and classic Clydesdales thunder into the arena!
November 18, 2025 10:34 AM
Here is a regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture for the week of Monday, November 17, 2025.
November 17, 2025 05:05 PM
·
National Pork Board Chief Sustainability Officer Jamie Burr shares a closer look at the Pork Checkoff’s Pork Cares Farm Impact Report, a research program to increase trust in the pork supply chain.
November 17, 2025 02:03 PM
·
Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.
November 17, 2025 01:24 PM
·
Tariff relief may soften grocery prices, but it also intensifies competition for U.S. fruit, vegetable, and beef producers as cheaper imports regain market share.
November 17, 2025 01:20 PM
·
Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.
November 17, 2025 01:17 PM
·
While agriculture doesn’t predict every recession, the sector’s long history of turning down before the broader economy
November 16, 2025 12:00 PM
·
