WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The Trump Administration is considering a multi-billion-dollar aid package for U.S. farmers, with a primary focus on soybean growers in the Midwest. The Wall Street Journal reports that the package could be worth between $10 billion and $14 billion, funded in part by tariff revenue, as China shifts its purchases to South America.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week that the government will step in to help, following China’s withdrawal from the U.S. soybean market this year.
Bessent describes the situation as “unfortunate” and says they’re working to make things right. He says an announcement will be made on Tuesday, with further talks between President Trump and China’s president scheduled for the coming weeks.
One trader tells us the industry will likely remain in a holding pattern until next week.
“What’s that Tuesday meeting going to hold? Sounds like there’s going to be some support coming to U.S. farmers,” said Brady Huck with Advanced Trading. “And we really did a dirty deed to the U.S. farmer last week with the Argentina announcement. So, how are we going to bail these farmers out going forward?”
Again, that announcement is set to arrive this approaching Tuesday. Secretary Bessent notes that other countries may increase their purchases, and farmers will receive assistance as they prepare for the next season. President Trump is set to meet with Chinese President Xi next month.
Lawmakers Sound Off On Soy as White House Pledges Support for Farmers
The White House has been closely monitoring the situation. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters this week that the president’s agenda includes farmers.
“Supporting America’s farmers and doing what’s best for them is at the top of the president’s priority list, and it’s at the top of the list for this administration right now,” Leavitt said. “There have been several very high-level meetings on this very topic. We want to help our farmers, and we’re exploring the best ways to do that. And I would anticipate there will be more to come on that very soon.”
Again, an announcement from the White House is expected to be made next Tuesday, where support is expected to be laid out for American soybean farmers.
Legislators are also calling for swift action. Family farmer and Representative Dan Newhouse (R-WA) says finding new markets for growers must be a priority.
“That’s why some of the things like trade issues are so important, particularly to our region,” Newhouse said. “You know, the Pacific Northwest, we depend on those international markets in a big way. So, we’ve got to get these trade deals done as soon as possible.”
Representative Newhouse, a farmer himself, says his family has been dealing with the same issues that other growers are facing. He says that calling the situation “challenging” right now would be an understatement.
Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), along with 12 other Democratic lawmakers, wrote to the White House this week, warning that any assistance for Argentina would come at the expense of America’s farmers and ranchers, who are facing both a decline in soybean prices and the ongoing impacts of the trade turmoil.
“We write with deep concern regarding your plan to send a $20 billion bailout, funded by American taxpayers, to Argentina just days after the country took steps to undermine American farmers,” wrote the Senators. “Last week, Argentina announced its plan to suspend export taxes on soybeans, effectively sidelining American soybean farmers in the international market.”
The group of lawmakers criticized President Trump’s plan to send $20 billion to Argentina, which comes just days after Argentina’s recent decision to reduce its soybean export taxes. This move, they argue, undermines American farmers by allowing large soybean sales to China, and they contend that American soybean farmers deserve better.
Government Shutdown’s Continued Impact on Agriculture
Today, the markets are operating without the non-farm payroll numbers. Next week’s WASDE report is also on hold. Analysts say the lack of data hinders their ability to provide farmers and ranchers with a clear outlook.
“It leaves the market kind of in a fog in the meantime, leaning on private sector data,” said analyst Arlan Suderman with Stone-X. “Basically, everyone’s looking for how much the size of the corn crop will be reduced. Will the soybean crop be reduced? If so, what will the scope of the change be?”
Suderman is an economist with Stone-X, a group that has released its own data just this week. The group is forecasting a decline in the U.S. corn crop, while expecting soybean yields to rise.
“Generally, the harvest yields that we’ve seen so far argue for a much lower corn yield, if you want to believe the anecdotal reports,” Sudderman said. “On soybeans, it’s a much different story. Even in some of the most drought-stricken areas we are seeing, yeah, there are some poor yields, but we’re also seeing some very impressive yields.”
They say that could mean less risk for corn farmers, but note that demand changes and weather could change the situation down the road.
StoneX Cuts Corn Yield Forecast But Lifts Soybeans
Commodity brokerage StoneX has adjusted its 2025 crop year outlook, trimming U.S. corn yield expectations while boosting soybean prospects. The firm now projects average corn yields at 185.9 bushels per acre, down from 186.9 bushels per acre last month. Even so, with USDA’s higher acreage base factored in, total corn production is forecast at 16.737 billion bushels, an increase from September’s 16.577 billion.
For soybeans, StoneX raised its yield forecast to 53.9 bushels per acre from 53.2, lifting estimated production to 4.326 billion bushels. The firm’s updates reflect changing field conditions and revisions to USDA acreage data, which continue to influence balance sheets.
By comparison, the USDA’s August WASDE projected a national corn yield of 188.8 bushels per acre (bpa) and soybeans at 53.6 bpa, suggesting that StoneX sees slightly tighter corn output but a more optimistic soybean harvest. Analysts note that export demand, especially for soybeans, remains weak, while global weather risks could further influence U.S. crop prospects.
