NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — We have new details now on CoBank’s 2026 acreage outlook. The company’s lead grain and oilseed economist says while the data suggests more soybean planting this season, the outlook for corn is far different.
“We’re forecasting about a 5-million-acre increase for soybeans,” said CoBank Economist Tanner Ehmke. “That would put corn at around 94 million, down a lot from last year. Now, there are a lot of numbers being tossed around right now. The whisper number out there for corn is like 95. Soybeans are more like 84-85. We’re putting a little bit more into the soybean side there at 86. Some of our preliminary numbers, I’ll tell you, were a little bit higher than that, even. We pulled it back a little bit because of the basis issues up in the Northern Plains. We’re talking to Dakotas, where they are still sitting on a substantial amount of soybeans. They did not have the export program this year that they had hoped for, even though China did come back to the market after the trade truce.”
However, Ehmke says most of the basis problems appear to be limited to the Dakotas.
“Still, though, the basis in the Northern Plains hasn’t really been much to write home about — it’s still a lot lower than is desired — and so, for that reason, that would probably be the outlier to the expansion of soybean acres,” Ehmke said. “Everywhere else, it looks like, based on the conversations we’re having with our customers, there is a movement to soybeans in the Central and Southern Plains. In the southern U.S., you’re losing acres of rice and cotton. In the Midwest, that’s been a toss-up, with a lot of people saying, ‘Oh yeah, we’re going to have a lot more corn acres’ because farmers had such luck with their corn yields this year, not so much luck on the soybean side. So, they’re hoping that that luck persists into 2026, and so they’re going to roll the dice and do corn, yet again.”
Ehmke added that multiple factors seem to favor more soybeans, citing increased crush capacity and insurance prices that are favorable to soybean producers.
The projected price discovery period for spring-planted crops is nearing the finish line, a critical moment for determining revenue and income guarantees for farmers across rural America. These price levels will play a key role in shaping risk management decisions for the 2026 growing season, as producers continue to navigate tight margins and ongoing financial pressure.
Brooks York with AgriSompo joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report to provide an update on where projected prices currently stand as the discovery window closes.
In his interview with RFD NEWS, York explained how these prices factor directly into crop insurance guarantees and why this period is so important for producers planning ahead. He also discussed how farmers are approaching crop insurance in 2026, noting that budget constraints and market volatility are influencing how producers evaluate coverage levels and risk strategies. He shared insight into how crop insurance continues to serve as a key financial backstop during uncertain economic conditions.
Looking ahead, York offered final guidance for producers as they prepare to lock in decisions tied to price discovery, emphasizing the importance of understanding current market signals and using available risk management tools to protect their operations.
Traders are also keeping a close watch on corn ahead of the spring planting season. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) trimmed those acreage estimates in recent days. Sam Hudson with Corn Belt Marketing told RFD NEWS all is good right now, but warns that the weather could cause some hiccups down the road.
“At the end of the day, the yield is going to be paramount, especially for the corn market. And I think, what I noticed and what I was as much interested in as anything, is how USDA was going to frame our demand expectations going into this next marketing year,” Hudson told RFD NEWS’ Tony St. James. “I think there’s a little bit more optimism built into that, and what I find interesting is even though on 94 million acres and a 183-yield stock usage was still down about one-and-a-half percent on the balance sheet for new crop. We still have some of these old crop demand paces that are ahead of pace, too. And so, nothing has to happen. But if you end up in a weather situation, you’re going to have to peel back the supply aside and potentially still be static or even raising demand.”
The USDA recently trimmed corn acreage by almost 5 million acres, boosting soybean estimates. Hudson says the markets are also leaning that direction.
“I’ve had a lot of comments really just in the past 10 days about people potentially leaning towards more soybeans, maybe switching some acres if they are switchable, or some areas where the anhydrous is on, and it’s going to be what it is. But when you look at the base price, you get to what I think we’re sitting in at 11.02 here as we head out into the end of the month here on beans. It’s quite a lot better. Almost 60 cents higher than what we saw last year, while corn is actually just slightly lower at around 460. And so, I think that’s going to continue to encourage -- maybe seeing some bean acres and alter some of these expectations as we go into spring.”’
The next major forecast on this year’s crops is still a little more than a month away, when the USDA plans to release its Prospective Planting Survey on March 31.
A lot more corn could mean room for ethanol market expansion. A South Dakota biofuel company is helping fuel one of America’s earliest sports...NASCAR!
POET produces zero-carbon ethanol, and this year it helped fuel the Daytona 500. POET CEO Jeff Broin says the technology pairs regenerative farming with carbon capture to produce lower-carbon, high-value fuels.
“Today, the industry uses more than 5 billion bushels of corn each year — that’s more than two times the amount we export,” Broin said. “Between 2000 and 2025, ethanol corn demand tripled commodity prices and more than doubled land values. E15 and low-carbon fuels will drive that demand again, the demand for grain, increasing grain prices and land values, really, for every farmer. Looking at regenerative farming—which includes cover crops, limited tillage, and organic fertilizer, coupled with CCUS (carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration)—those two technologies are going to be critical to producing the lower-carbon, higher-value fuels of the future, including the one we’re announcing today. So, we look forward to working with farmers to produce these new high-value, low-carbon fuels that are going to change the game.”
Broin added that the move helps NASCAR meet environmental goals while providing farmers a premium for using sustainable practices. The next race using POET’s ethanol is coming up this August at the Iowa Corn 350.
