AFBF: USDA Slashes 2025 Farm Income Outlook, Sets Baseline for ‘Significant Pressure’ into 2026

Danny Munch of the American Farm Bureau joined us to discuss USDA’s latest farm income forecast, revisions to prior estimates, and what the updated data means for farmers heading into 2026.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its first Net Farm Income Forecast since September, providing an early look at the financial conditions facing farmers in 2026. The report also includes revisions to USDA’s previous estimates for 2025, reshaping how last year’s farm economy is viewed and establishing a new baseline for the year ahead.

American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to break down the latest forecast and what it signals for the broader farm economy.

In his interview with RFD NEWS, Munch explained that the new outlook offers insight into how producers may fare financially in 2026, as income pressures continue across much of the agricultural sector.

The updated report also revises figures released last fall, and Munch highlighted how the new numbers differ from the September forecast. Those changes reflect shifts in commodity prices, production costs, and government payments that altered the final picture of farm income in 2025.

Munch addressed how rising farm debt and ongoing income declines are affecting farmers, and how producers are adjusting their operations and financial strategies to manage continued economic pressure.

Related Stories
Strong land values continue masking tighter farm finances.
Tight supplies continue supporting strong cull values.
Vive’s Art Graves shared insights on the new Phobos FC 360 foliar fungicide, its advantages for Canadian growers, early performance results, and the company’s ongoing commitment to advanced crop protection solutions.
Kentucky Firefighters Jonathan and Lonny Epley and Extension Agent Leann Martin tell us about a new portable grain bin rescue tool, and its potential to enhance safety for farmers and first responders nationwide.
Tennessee Ag in focus: Commissioner Holt shares his farm economy outlook, the TNFB honors a cotton legacy, and TN 4-H and FFA leaders discuss support for the next generation of agriculture in Tennessee.
Suderman joins Tony St. James in the RFD Studios to discuss how geopolitical tensions are triggering global transport disruptions, new inflation pressures, and other challenges for agriculture to navigate.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Colorado Congressman Jeff Hurd joins Champions of Rural America to share insights into the Western Caucus legislative priorities as they champion wildfire prevention and mitigation in the West.
Britt Hilton with the Oklahoma Farm Bureau joined us to discuss current conditions, producer impacts, and the road to recovery following the Ranger Road Fire.
National FFA Southern Region Vice President T. Wayne William talks about Wear Blue Day, the history of the blue jacket, and why the tradition continues to inspire pride and connection among FFA members nationwide.
The closure of Lubbock Feeders highlights mounting pressure on the U.S. cattle supply, according to the Texas Cattle Feeders Association, as border restrictions and costs strain feedyards.
From projected drops in input costs to biofuel expansion and the USDA’s new “One Farmer, One File” initiative, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins shared key policy priorities at Commodity Classic that put farm issues back in the spotlight.
NCBA Chief Counsel Mary-Thomas Hart discussed the legal process behind delisting the prairie chicken, the challenges ranchers faced under the bird’s previous protections, and the benefits of cooperative habitat management for both livestock and wildlife.