Beef Industry Faces Tight Supplies, Policy Fights, and Global Trade Strains

Tight cattle supplies keep prices high for ranchers, but policy shifts, export barriers, and packer losses signal a volatile road ahead for the beef supply chain.

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — America’s beef sector is caught between record-high cattle prices, struggling packer margins, and a wave of renewed policy debates, according to the North American Meat Institute’s October report, The Reality of Beef and Cattle Markets (PDF Version). The group says tight cattle supplies are driving cow-calf and feedlot profits sharply higher — but packers remain in the red as plant utilization slips and labor and trade costs climb.

The Meat Institute notes producers’ share of the retail beef dollar has climbed to 55 percent, while packers’ share has fallen to just 5 percent. Concentration among major beef packers has held steady for three decades, countering claims of rising consolidation. Meanwhile, about half of all U.S. beef consumed is ground, and imports of lean trim — mainly from Argentina, Australia, and New Zealand — remain critical for meeting domestic burger demand. Even a proposed expansion of Argentine beef imports, the report says, would barely move U.S. retail prices.

The Institute also warns against reviving “bad ideas” such as mandatory country-of-origin labeling (mCOOL) and interstate sales of uninspected meat, calling both costly and risky to food safety. It urges the USDA to maintain strict federal inspection standards and coordination on the New World Screwworm response plan. On trade, the group says China’s refusal to reauthorize 415 U.S. beef plants violates the Phase One Agreement and has created major export losses that demand White House action.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight cattle supplies keep prices high for ranchers, but policy shifts, export barriers, and packer losses signal a volatile road ahead for the beef supply chain.

Related Stories
U.S. produce growers face a structural disadvantage—cheaper imports driving down prices while rising labor costs squeeze margins. Without new policies or technology, profitability remains uncertain.
UNL Animal Science Ph.D candidate Anna Kobza joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report to share her agriculture story and tips for other producers hoping to share their ag stories online or with the media.
Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
Lamb prices have seen a surprising surge driven by a tight supply and increasing demand in non-traditional markets.
“We believe that it is just a matter of days or weeks... before we see New World screwworm in Texas.”
Farmers may benefit from higher turkey prices this holiday season, but risks from HPAI and limited poult placements could further strain the supply.
According to the most recent version of the Household Food Security Report for 2022-2023, food insecurity is on the rise in the U.S.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Expect firm demand for dependable HRS and SW, steady movement in HRW, more sorting on SRW, and selective bids on durum until full milling results are released.
Reversion would sharply increase dairy prices and raise crop supports, driving up government costs and consumer prices while unsettling markets—even as crop insurance remains in place.
Treat financial stress as a health risk—know the warning signs, normalize conversations, and connect farm families to local and national support early.
Congress has just over a month of working days left for the year. Plan for uneven USDA service until funding is restored, and closely monitor Farm Bill talks, as avoiding Permanent Law before January 1 is the single biggest risk to markets and milk prices.
Mexico’s tougher, two-step treatment and added checkpoints are catching cases before they can spread—good news for producers near the border.
Harvest Builds As Logistics And Input Costs Shape Fall Decisions
Agriculture Shows
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.
The goal of “Where the Food Comes From” is as simple as its name implies — host Chip Carter takes you along on the journey of where our food comes from — and we don’t just mean to the supermarket (though that’s part of the big picture!). But beyond where it comes from, how it gets there, and all the links in the chain that make that happen.
Join markets specialist Scott Shellady, better known as the Cow Guy, as he covers the market-close, breaking down headlines that drive the commodities and equities markets with commentary from respected industry heavyweights.