Cattle Market Outlook: U.S. Red Meat Production Declines as Auctions Gain Ground

Beef is leading the decline as slaughter drops and supplies tighten.

Set-of-various-classic-alternative-raw-meat-veal-beef-steaks-chateau-mignon-t-bone-tomahawk-striploin-tenderloin-new-york-steak.-Flat-lay-top-.-See-More-By-ricka_kinamoto_adobe-stock.png

Photo by Ricka Kinamoto via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, TN (RFD NEWS) — U.S. red meat production moved lower in 2025, with beef leading the decline.

Dr. Josh Maples at Mississippi State University said total red meat output fell about 2 percent from 2024, with beef production down 3.6 percent and pork off 0.8 percent.

Cattle slaughter showed the sharper shift. Commercial cattle slaughter totaled 29.8 million head, down 6 percent from the previous year. Average live weight rose by 33 pounds, helping offset some of the production loss.

Those heavier cattle have become an important part of the supply story. Average live weights are now 67 pounds above 2023 levels, indicating that larger carcass weights are making up for some of the herd contraction.

The slaughter mix also changed, but not in a way that signals herd rebuilding. Steers made up 49.7 percent of federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 31.7 percent, and cull cows 17 percent, down from 17.8 percent in 2024.

Cold storage numbers support the tighter beef picture. Red meat inventories were down 2 percent from a year earlier, with beef down 3 percent and pork up 2 percent.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Beef remains the primary driver of tighter red meat supplies, even as heavier cattle partly cushion the decline.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist

As production continues to see drops, cattle auctions are hotter than ever. This week, Superior Livestock auctioned 25,000 cattle at their event in Hudson Oaks, Texas, on Thursday.

Livestock Representative and Auctioneer Ralph Wade with Superior Livestock joined Tony St. James from the auction floor on Thursday’s Market Day Report with an update on the event and the current state of the fed cattle market.

In his conversation with RFD News, Wade said that the market is growing in demand: “We’ve continually seen this market gain traction, and you know we have our setbacks that you talked about a little bit earlier last week,” Wade told RFD News. “This market tried to break back, but it seems like it just kind of eases back, and then we pick up traction again.”

“The demand is just tremendous, no doubt, with this protein being the highest, best protein there is in the country,” Wade continued. “Everybody started to realize that, and the demand has been phenomenal over the last two or three years and just continues to gain popularity.”

Wade said that they have numerous events lined up for the summer.

More information can be found on Superior Livestock’s website.

Related Stories
The Ranger Road Fire in the Oklahoma Panhandle is now 65% contained after burning nearly 300,000 acres over the past week. Kevin Charleston of Specialty Risk Insurance Agency discusses wildfire recovery, livestock insurance considerations, and the importance of preparedness for producers across the Southern Plains.
Higher output keeps milk supplies ample, reinforcing expectations for softer dairy prices even as feed costs remain favorable.
Singer-songwriter and RanchHER Clare Dunn reflects on the importance of National FFA Week, her time in FFA, and her commitment to advocating for agriculture and rural issues.
Border closures tied to the threat of New World Screwworm continue to stall Mexican fed cattle imports, tightening U.S. feeder cattle supplies over time — triggering feedlot closures that hinder herd rebuilding efforts, threaten the beef supply chain, and shrink production while consumer prices stay elevated.
Ranger Road Fire has burned 283,000 acres across Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle and is nearing containment, as ranchers begin assessing cattle and infrastructure losses as they look toward recovery.
Domestic beef demand remains solid, with the strongest growth occurring through retail channels, according to consumers surveyed in the latest K-State Meat Demand Monitor.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

“Cow goggles” are helping farmers experience cattle vision in real time, offering new tools to reduce stress, improve movement, and enhance livestock management.
National FFA Organization CEO Scott Stump has been inducted as an honorary member of Purdue’s Alpha Gamma Rho chapter, recognizing his leadership in agriculture.
K-State’s Dr. Gregg Ibendahl breaks down the impacts of the Middle East ceasefire on energy markets and input costs, and what farmers should watch in the weeks ahead.
CME Group Executive Director of Ag Research Fred Seamon discusses the recent rise in farmer sentiment highlighted in the March Ag Economy Barometer report.
Faster approvals could speed projects, but may face scrutiny.
Coal-based ethanol could weaken long-term export demand for corn-based fuels.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.