LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD News) — China’s pork glut is driving hog prices below chicken prices, signaling weak consumer demand and continued losses across the world’s largest pork industry. The downturn could limit Chinese demand for imported meat while keeping feed use elevated.
Retired USDA economist Fred Gale says China’s hog price remained near 10 yuan per kilogram from April through June, below poultry prices for four straight months. Second-quarter pork output rose 2.3 percent, while hog prices fell 28.6 percent from a year earlier.
Large hog inventories continue consuming corn and soybean meal, but weak margins may eventually force production cuts. Sow numbers declined 6.5 percent to 37.8 million head, though productivity gains could keep pork supplies high.
China’s poultry sector is also expanding. First-half poultry output increased 1.2 million metric tons, while imports fell and exports rose sharply, reducing opportunities for foreign suppliers.
Analysts expect hog prices to remain near break-even through summer before possibly improving later this year. U.S. producers will watch whether herd reductions strengthen soybean and grain import demand or further reduce meat export opportunities.
