NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — China’s soybean buying remains far weaker than Washington’s expectations, despite political assurances made after last month’s Trump–Xi meeting.
Retired USDA economist Dr. Fred Gale notes that China’s Ministry of Commerce refused this week to confirm the White House’s claim that Beijing would buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans before year-end and 25 million tons annually from 2026–28. Instead, the spokesman delivered a broad statement about “cooperative trade,” avoiding any mention of soybeans — a move mirrored across Chinese media outlets that repeated the non-answer without clarifying China’s intent.
Market behavior continues to contradict diplomatic language. China has imported nearly 96 mmt of soybeans so far in 2025, but only 16.8 mmt from the U.S., making the promised 12 mmt surge before year-end increasingly implausible.
Prices remain the most significant obstacle: U.S. soybeans still face a 13 percent tariff, compared with 3 percent for Brazilian beans, and delivered-to-port prices (the bean plus freight) show Brazilian soybeans running roughly $60–$70 per ton cheaper than U.S. shipments. That advantage is shaping buying patterns. COFCO made a few symbolic purchases around the Trump–Xi meeting, but China simultaneously signed a 20-mmt agreement with Brazil at the Shanghai Import Expo and has not deployed Sinograin — its reserve buyer — to procure U.S. supplies.
Record port stocks, weak crushing margins, and slow feed demand add to the drag. Analysts say China is unlikely to buy large volumes until margins improve — and even then, Brazil remains the cheaper, higher-priority origin.
Farm-Level Takeaway: China’s cost advantage with Brazilian soybeans and vague public messaging leave U.S. export prospects uncertain heading into winter.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Grain shippers face lower freight values thanks to weak soybean exports and strong rail service, but barge traffic and forward Gulf loadings suggest continued uncertainty as harvest ramps up.
September 17, 2025 04:01 PM
·
The Fertilizer Research Act, reintroduced by Sens. Grassley, Ernst, and Baldwin, would direct the USDA to study and publish public reports on competition and pricing trends in the fertilizer market.
September 16, 2025 05:08 PM
·
Producers may need to prepare for margin pressure in livestock feeding, while dairy farmers could benefit from stronger product demand.
September 16, 2025 12:42 PM
·
Farmers await concrete trade commitments from China. Until then, export prospects for soybeans, corn, and sorghum remain uncertain against strong South American competition.
September 16, 2025 11:04 AM
·
National Sorghum Producers CEO Tim Lust said farmers face a challenging year with strong supply, murky trade conditions, and uncertain access to their largest market: China.
September 15, 2025 01:59 PM
·
U.S. trade talks with China resume, but meat industry leaders say dealing with shifting demand and market uncertainty is nothing new in this side of the ag sector.
September 15, 2025 12:57 PM
·
Tariffs are pushing up input costs, with fertilizer prices rising $100 per ton and machinery costs climbing due to steel and parts duties.
September 15, 2025 12:21 PM
·
Year-round sales of E-15 are another major topic on Capitol Hill, which, according to Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE), is one issue up for debate this session with significant bipartisan support.
September 15, 2025 12:09 PM
·
American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland joins us to share his reaction to September’s WASDE and discuss the trade uncertainty between China and his industry.
September 12, 2025 02:13 PM
·
