LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — Cull cow prices are holding unusually firm heading into late fall, bucking their normal seasonal decline even as beef imports and tariff policy dominate recent headlines.
According to Dr. David Anderson, Livestock Marketing Economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, the market typically weakens this time of year as both beef and dairy operations increase culling after weaning and during herd management shifts. Those seasonal factors usually coincide with softer end-of-grilling-season demand, creating predictable price lows in the fall. But this year’s Southern Plains cull cow market has remained far stronger than expected.
Dr. Anderson notes that Southern Plains cull cow auction prices climbed to roughly $165 per cwt in June and have stayed near that level through the fall, slipping briefly before rebounding each time.
National average cutter cows have eased about $9 per cwt to $126, but live cow prices overall remain historically strong. The cow beef market, however, is acting more traditionally. The boxed cow beef cutout has fallen from $340 to $317 per cwt, and wholesale 90-percent lean trimmings have slid from $436 to $404 per cwt, both reflecting the usual fall decline in cow beef values.
Looking ahead, Dr. Anderson expects dairy-side culling to pick up. USDA’s latest report shows the dairy herd at 9.85 million head, the largest since at least 1993, with September milk production up 4 percent from last year.
Lower milk prices and strong returns from beef-on-dairy breeding are likely to pressure dairy culling higher, while beef cow culling should remain historically low due to tight cow inventories and incentives to expand. That combination — more dairy cows and fewer beef cows entering the pipeline — is expected to keep cull cow prices elevated deeper into winter.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Firm live cow prices and shifting dairy-side culling suggest cull cow values may stay stronger than normal this winter despite weaker cow beef cutout trends.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Winter weather will challenge livestock producers working to rebuild their herds despite harsh conditions.
November 12, 2025 01:20 PM
·
Enforceable origin labels could create clearer premiums for U.S. cattle and address concerns some producers have had with competition from foreign imported beef.
November 12, 2025 12:39 PM
·
The National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) says recent wins in markets like Malaysia and Cambodia help farmers focus on production rather than trade barriers.
November 11, 2025 03:50 PM
·
Lucia Ruano, USMEF’s Central America representative, discusses what is driving demand for U.S. beef and pork in the region.
November 11, 2025 01:30 PM
·
Tyson expects another year of beef-segment losses due to tight cattle supplies, even as chicken, pork, and prepared foods strengthen overall margins.
November 11, 2025 01:26 PM
·
A smaller U.S. turkey flock and resurgent avian flu have tightened supplies, driving prices higher even as other key holiday foods show mixed trends.
November 10, 2025 03:05 PM
·
The DOJ’s new antitrust probe could reshape beef-packer behavior, with potential impacts on fed-cattle prices, processor margins, and long-term competition across the supply chain.
November 10, 2025 10:35 AM
·
Verified U.S. data show real leather’s carbon footprint is lower than advertised — an edge for the American cattle industry in both marketing and byproduct value.
November 07, 2025 11:32 AM
·
Stagger buys and diversifies fertilizer sources — watch CBAM, India’s tenders, and Brazil’s import pace to time urea, phosphate, and potash purchases.
November 07, 2025 11:16 AM
·
