Drought and Rising Costs Slow Beef Herd Rebuild Despite Strong Cattle Prices

High prices alone may not drive herd expansion.

0G4A7492 copy.jpg

FarmHER, Inc.

LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Strong calf prices are not yet enough to trigger herd rebuilding as drought and rising input costs continue to limit expansion decisions. Analysis from Hannah Baker, University of Florida Extension beef economist, highlights growing pressure on cow-calf producers across the Southeast.

Drought remains a major constraint, with all of the Southeast experiencing some level of dryness and about 75 percent in severe to extreme conditions. Stressed forage, combined with early-year freezes, has reduced grazing availability and increased reliance on purchased feed.

Farm-Level Takeaway: High prices alone may not drive herd expansion.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist

Input costs are adding further pressure. Diesel prices are running roughly 55 percent above a year ago, with some areas topping $6 per gallon. Fertilizer prices have also jumped, with potash, UAN, and urea all posting significant year-over-year increases, raising concerns about forage quality and production.

Despite those challenges, cattle prices remain historically strong. Steer calves in the Southern Plains are up sharply from both last year and the five-year average, supported by tight supplies and strong demand.

Related Stories
Data centers will continue expanding, but local decisions will determine whether that growth protects agricultural water access or adds stress to already vulnerable production regions.
A long-running poultry waste lawsuit remains unresolved after a federal judge rejected proposed settlements and appeals followed.
Ethanol, sorghum, dairy, and cotton provide additional export support as major commodity trade markets remain uneven.
Consumers are watching affordability, but projected beef demand remains strong enough to sustain market attention.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

U.S. beef imports are running at a record pace while exports are falling, reflecting tight domestic cattle supplies and high U.S. beef prices.
ASFMRA’s Chad Hertz joins us to discuss farmland trends, economic pressures facing producers, and how outside influences are shaping today’s land market.
Cattle analysts say the U.S. beef cattle herd rebuild still faces major hurdles despite some minor positive signals noted in certain regions.
USDA’s first 2026/27 outlook shows tighter supplies across several markets, led by wheat, corn, cotton, rice, beef, and sugar.
Strong export demand is supportive, but higher freight costs may pressure basis and grain movement margins.
Advocacy groups say farmers, ranchers and business owners may need to file claims before a July deadline.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.