Ethanol Exports Strengthen Market Access as U.S.-China Deal, Phase One Investigation Move Forward

Chris Bliley with Growth Energy discusses ongoing concerns about U.S. ethanol exports and the expansion of market access promised under the Phase One deal between the U.S. and China.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol production eased slightly last week, even as inventories and exports climbed, according to EIA data compiled by the Renewable Fuels Association. Output fell 1.9 percent to 1.09 million barrels per day — equal to 45.8 million gallons daily — but remained 0.8 percent above last year and 3.1 percent above the three-year average. The four-week average rate rose to an annualized pace of 16.7 billion gallons.

Ethanol stocks expanded two percent to 22.4 million barrels, running 2.7 percent above a year ago and 3.2 percent higher than the three-year average. Most of the build occurred along the Gulf and West Coasts. Gasoline supplied to the market — a proxy for demand — rebounded 5.6 percent to 8.92 million barrels per day, slightly trailing last year but still topping its three-year trend.

Net ethanol blending inputs held steady at 911,000 barrels per day, while exports jumped nearly 35 percent to 175,000 barrels per day, the highest since January. Analysts note the continued absence of imports for more than a year highlights the U.S.’s strong domestic balance and competitive export position.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Slightly lower output alongside stronger exports and inventories suggests a firming global ethanol market heading into winter.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert

The nation’s largest biofuel trade association, Growth Energy, is voicing support for the U.S. investigation into China’s implementation of the Phase One trade agreement, a move announced just days before renewed trade talks between President Trump and China’s President Xi.

Chris Bliley with Growth Energy joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to discuss the ongoing concerns surrounding U.S. ethanol exports and market access promised under the Phase One deal.

In his interview with RFD-TV News, Bliley shared what the industry hopes to see come from the investigation and how it could influence future trade policy. He also addressed the potential for renewed tension between the U.S. and China as the investigation proceeds, while highlighting new trade agreements announced by the U.S. with four Southeast Asian countries that could open new opportunities for American ethanol producers.

Related Stories
Without additional support, many soybean operations will continue to face financial stress as they prepare for the 2026 crop.
Mike Steenhoek with the Soy Transportation Coalition discusses supply chain challenges facing agriculture as snow, sleet and ice threaten most of the Eastern U.S.
Congressman Adrian Smith of Nebraska joined us with the latest on efforts to secure year-round E15 sales.
Brian Earnest, an animal protein economist with CoBank, shares insights into current demand trends and the challenges facing broiler production.
From tariff talks in Europe to SCOTUS uncertainty and rising farm losses, analysts say policy and global supply will shape grain markets in the year ahead.
Large Brazilian crops heighten downside price risk if the weather allows production to reach projected levels.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Land equity protects solvency but does not replace profitability.
Reliable canal infrastructure supports long-term access to global agricultural markets.
Corn export pace remains the bright spot, but stable ethanol export demand remains a critical support for corn markets.
Rail consolidation could affect grain basis, freight rates, and service reliability across major producing regions.
For communities that depend on agriculture as their primary economic engine, the recession is not defined by headlines on Wall Street. It is defined by the quiet disappearance of the businesses that once processed, serviced, and supported the crop.
According to the Louisiana Department of Agriculture and Forestry, fire crews remain on alert statewide as Red Flag conditions persist. Officials warn that even contained fires can reignite quickly under current weather conditions.