Farm Bureau Economist: China Trade Shifts Keep Pressure on U.S. Farmers

China remains critical to U.S. farm exports, but Brazil’s growing market share keeps pressure on U.S. soybean demand.

farming taxes accounting money_adobe stock.png

Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — China remains one of the most important export markets for U.S. agriculture, but the relationship has become more uncertain. American Farm Bureau Federation economist Faith Parum says U.S. agricultural exports to China reached a record $40.9 billion in 2022, then fell to about $27 billion in 2024.

Soybeans remain the center of the relationship. AFBF says soybeans accounted for 47 percent of all U.S. agricultural exports to China in 2024, underscoring how concentrated the market remains in a single commodity.

Brazil has captured more of China’s soybean demand. In 2010, the U.S. supplied 45 percent of China’s soybean imports, while Brazil supplied 32 percent. By 2024, Brazil’s share rose to 70 percent, while the U.S. fell to 23 percent.

AFBF says recent 2026 soybean sales to China have improved, but paper commitments still need to follow through.

For farmers, stable export demand matters as margins remain tight.

Farm-Level Takeaway: China remains critical to U.S. farm exports, but Brazil’s growing market share keeps pressure on U.S. soybean demand.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Related Stories
USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez says the cattle industry may be nearing a turning point that could gradually reshape supply, prices, and profitability in the years ahead.
Accessing land is one of the biggest challenges facing the next generation of farmers and ranchers.
The behind-the-scenes role helps guide jump crews as they protect rural communities.
Purdue University’s Dr. Michael Langemeier joins us to break down the latest read on farmer sentiment in the April Ag Economy Barometer, and growing concerns about the impact of global conflict on farm inputs and income.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Agriculture Freedom Zones reflect rising concern that data center growth must not strain rural grids or displace productive farmland.
Record Choice grading levels are changing how beef quality premiums are valued.
From projected drops in input costs to biofuel expansion and the USDA’s new “One Farmer, One File” initiative, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins shared key policy priorities at Commodity Classic that put farm issues back in the spotlight.
NCBA Chief Counsel Mary-Thomas Hart discussed the legal process behind delisting the prairie chicken, the challenges ranchers faced under the bird’s previous protections, and the benefits of cooperative habitat management for both livestock and wildlife.
Liquidity management and cost control will matter most in 2026.
Food demand is stable but price-sensitive across rural markets. For agriculture and rural communities, the important signal is not optimism — it is stability.