NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer affordability is sliding again — and that matters for farm margins and timing of pre-plant buys. Rabobank’s Knowledge Exchange Division says the 12-month affordability index has moved deeper into negative territory, signaling a new contraction phase that resembles the last downcycle.
The bank expects weaker demand through 2025 and a more pronounced downturn in 2026 as high prices curb applications and shift product choices in key markets.
Regional forces add volatility. In the US, geopolitics and tariffs threaten to disrupt the coming season. European fertilizer prices are likely to rise with the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the European Union’s carbon-pricing policy for imports. Brazil faces tight margins and scarce credit even as deliveries could set records. China is prioritizing domestic supply, while India’s urea tenders continue to steer global pricing.
Product-wise, urea consumption is forecast to fall in 2026 — with Brazilian growers pivoting toward ammonium sulphate — and phosphate prices are keeping 2025 demand down about 4 percent, with more declines likely as Chinese exports ease and shipments from Morocco and Saudi Arabia increase. Potash, after a 2024 rebound, is expected to slow in 2025; sustained price strength would pressure 2026 demand despite Brazil’s record import ambitions.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Stagger buys and diversify sources — watch CBAM, India’s tenders, and Brazil’s import pace to time urea, phosphate, and potash purchases.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Rep. Erin Houchin of Indiana discusses how the Affordable Homes Act will benefit rural communities, and her broader efforts to improve access to affordable housing.
January 15, 2026 03:04 PM
·
Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig discusses market conditions, policy priorities, and his outlook for agriculture moving forward.
January 15, 2026 01:36 PM
·
House Agriculture Committee Democrats are calling for action on the Farm and Family Relief Act, warning that proposed SNAP cost shifts to states could reduce food assistance for low-income families amid ongoing tariffs and trade disruptions that continue to strain U.S. farmers.
January 15, 2026 12:30 PM
·
Record ethanol production and improving blending demand continue to support corn usage despite rising short-term inventories.
January 15, 2026 11:47 AM
·
Tight beef cow supplies and steady demand point to continued record-level cull cow prices in 2026.
January 15, 2026 11:23 AM
·
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney discusses the latest developments in the Supreme Court, trade tariffs, and the future of the USMCA under President Donald Trump.
January 14, 2026 11:54 AM
·
A high-stakes legal case in a South Dakota federal court concerning misleading country-of-origin labeling (MCOOL), such as “Product of the USA,” on food products, will significantly impact U.S. agricultural policy for years to come.
January 14, 2026 09:00 AM
·
Agronomy experts explain why standing crop residue protects soil and reduces costs for crop growers, while shredding often yields little benefit at higher costs.
January 14, 2026 08:00 AM
·
Freight volatility increasingly determines export margins, making logistics costs as important as price in marketing decisions.
January 14, 2026 06:00 AM
·
