NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer affordability is sliding again — and that matters for farm margins and timing of pre-plant buys. Rabobank’s Knowledge Exchange Division says the 12-month affordability index has moved deeper into negative territory, signaling a new contraction phase that resembles the last downcycle.
The bank expects weaker demand through 2025 and a more pronounced downturn in 2026 as high prices curb applications and shift product choices in key markets.
Regional forces add volatility. In the US, geopolitics and tariffs threaten to disrupt the coming season. European fertilizer prices are likely to rise with the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the European Union’s carbon-pricing policy for imports. Brazil faces tight margins and scarce credit even as deliveries could set records. China is prioritizing domestic supply, while India’s urea tenders continue to steer global pricing.
Product-wise, urea consumption is forecast to fall in 2026 — with Brazilian growers pivoting toward ammonium sulphate — and phosphate prices are keeping 2025 demand down about 4 percent, with more declines likely as Chinese exports ease and shipments from Morocco and Saudi Arabia increase. Potash, after a 2024 rebound, is expected to slow in 2025; sustained price strength would pressure 2026 demand despite Brazil’s record import ambitions.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Stagger buys and diversify sources — watch CBAM, India’s tenders, and Brazil’s import pace to time urea, phosphate, and potash purchases.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Lower inventories and cautious farrowing plans suggest tighter hog supplies into 2026, keeping producer margins sensitive to demand trends and health risks.
September 26, 2025 11:28 AM
·
Secretary Rollins’ plan targets high costs, labor challenges, and export growth, delivering relief at home while building markets abroad.
September 26, 2025 10:18 AM
·
Michigan corn farmer and NCGA Vice President-Elect Matt Frostic will lead the task force. He joined us on Thursday to share his insights on the escalating corn crisis.
September 25, 2025 01:46 PM
·
Speaking about his administration’s tariff strategy, Trump acknowledged that producers could face financial strain in the short term but promised stopgap support.
September 25, 2025 01:07 PM
·
Rising cow numbers and higher yields are boosting milk supplies, which may keep pressure on prices and farm margins into the fall.
September 25, 2025 01:01 PM
·
As input costs continue to rise, diesel prices have held steady in recent weeks, according to energy analysts at GasBuddy.
September 25, 2025 12:02 PM
·
U.S. soybean farmers are growing increasingly frustrated by Argentina’s gains in Chinese grain contracts and Trump’s pledge of economic support for the South American ally.
September 25, 2025 11:51 AM
·
The USDA is moving to close the farm trade gap through promotion, missions, and stronger export financing.
September 25, 2025 10:46 AM
·
Midwest corn and soy producers are monitoring for disease and lower yields due to the ongoing drought over the last 30 days.
September 24, 2025 04:38 PM
·
