NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer affordability is sliding again — and that matters for farm margins and timing of pre-plant buys. Rabobank’s Knowledge Exchange Division says the 12-month affordability index has moved deeper into negative territory, signaling a new contraction phase that resembles the last downcycle.
The bank expects weaker demand through 2025 and a more pronounced downturn in 2026 as high prices curb applications and shift product choices in key markets.
Regional forces add volatility. In the US, geopolitics and tariffs threaten to disrupt the coming season. European fertilizer prices are likely to rise with the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the European Union’s carbon-pricing policy for imports. Brazil faces tight margins and scarce credit even as deliveries could set records. China is prioritizing domestic supply, while India’s urea tenders continue to steer global pricing.
Product-wise, urea consumption is forecast to fall in 2026 — with Brazilian growers pivoting toward ammonium sulphate — and phosphate prices are keeping 2025 demand down about 4 percent, with more declines likely as Chinese exports ease and shipments from Morocco and Saudi Arabia increase. Potash, after a 2024 rebound, is expected to slow in 2025; sustained price strength would pressure 2026 demand despite Brazil’s record import ambitions.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Stagger buys and diversify sources — watch CBAM, India’s tenders, and Brazil’s import pace to time urea, phosphate, and potash purchases.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Brandy Carroll with the Arkansas Farm Bureau shares an update on planting conditions and what producers are facing this season.
April 10, 2026 02:40 PM
·
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney explains shifting global trade dynamics and what they could mean for agriculture and energy markets.
April 10, 2026 02:27 PM
·
Rising diesel and energy costs are squeezing farmers and rural communities, increasing production expenses and raising concerns about consumer demand for beef even as U.S. meat exports regain the Australian market.
April 10, 2026 01:23 PM
·
Rising input costs may squeeze margins and shift planting decisions. Scott Metzger with the American Soybean Association discusses fertilizer market pressures and what is at stake for farmers as planting season ramps up.
April 10, 2026 12:18 PM
·
Texas ranchers and lawmakers warn of renewed New World screwworm risks, highlighting prevention efforts, border concerns, and the role of sterile flies in protecting U.S. livestock.
April 10, 2026 11:19 AM
·
Farm Bureau economist Danny Munch discusses the USDA’s request for feedback on data and research, how such requests work, and what farmers should know about submitting comments before the Thursday, April 9 deadline.
April 09, 2026 03:39 PM
·
