Fruit and Tree Nut Outlook Shows Mixed Crop Forecasts

Crop-specific shifts and strong prices highlight the variability of this year’s fruit and tree nut harvest, according to USDA data.

almond trees_adobe stock.png

Ripe almonds nuts on an almond tree ready to harvest.

Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The USDA’s latest fruit and nut reports show both gains and setbacks for 2025 crops.

Apple production is forecast at 11.5 billion pounds, up six percent from last year, with Washington expected to hit a record 8 billion pounds.

Pears are also rebounding, rising 22 percent from 2024’s historic low. Even so, pear output remains among the smallest on record.

In contrast, peaches are expected to reach 682,500 tons, a four-percent decrease from last year. California, South Carolina, and Georgia all project smaller crops. U.S. grape production is forecast at 5.59 million tons, up 3 percent, with stronger wine grape harvests in California and Oregon offsetting declines in Washington.

Other highlights include a nine-percent decrease in cranberry production to 8.13 million barrels, a 10 percent decline in table olive production to 44,000 tons, and an 18 percent increase in walnut production to 710,000 tons. Tight almond supplies and firm nut prices are expected to persist into the fall.

Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: While apples, pears, grapes, and walnuts show strength, peaches, cranberries, and olives are weaker. Crop-specific shifts and strong prices highlight the variability of this year’s harvest.
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The Washington Tree Fruit Association says this is not surprising and notes the USDA has offered a lifeline to growers while they transition away from the cannery market.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

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