WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — USDA’s Economic Research Service says the global wheat outlook is tightening as production falls from last year’s record. World wheat production for 2026/27 is forecast to be down by 24.8 million metric tons, though it remains the second-highest on record.
The biggest production decline is in the United States, where drought reduced area and yields. ERS says other major exporters are also lower, including the European Union, Argentina, Russia, Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.
Trade is expected to contract because exporters have smaller supplies and several importing countries have larger crops. North Africa and the Middle East are seeing better production, with Morocco, Turkey, Iran, and Egypt expected to import less.
Global wheat consumption is also shifting. Feed and residual use are forecast to decline, while food, seed, and industrial use are forecast to grow, driven by India’s larger crop and population.
Ending stocks are projected to decline to 275 million metric tons, with major exporters’ stocks tightening most sharply.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Smaller exporter crops and lower global stocks could keep wheat markets sensitive to weather, trade, and shifts in demand.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Disease risks remain a key factor to watch heading into fall.
September 18, 2025 03:07 PM
·
Grain shippers face lower freight values thanks to weak soybean exports and strong rail service, but barge traffic and forward Gulf loadings suggest continued uncertainty as harvest ramps up.
September 17, 2025 04:01 PM
·
Producers may need to prepare for margin pressure in livestock feeding, while dairy farmers could benefit from stronger product demand.
September 16, 2025 12:42 PM
·
Farmers await concrete trade commitments from China. Until then, export prospects for soybeans, corn, and sorghum remain uncertain against strong South American competition.
September 16, 2025 11:04 AM
·
National Sorghum Producers CEO Tim Lust said farmers face a challenging year with strong supply, murky trade conditions, and uncertain access to their largest market: China.
September 15, 2025 01:59 PM
·
U.S. trade talks with China resume, but meat industry leaders say dealing with shifting demand and market uncertainty is nothing new in this side of the ag sector.
September 15, 2025 12:57 PM
·
